TORONTOTOR
72-73 · +4 AL EAST · L2 · 7-3 L10
@TUE 9:40 PM ETATH HOME PARK
58-87 · +4 AL WEST · W1 · 5-5 L10
ATH
Weather
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
José Soriano
RHP · TORPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
3.52
IP
156.0
K/9
8.7
BB/9
4.0
WHIP
1.29
L5 STARTS4.93 ERA · 17.1% K · 8.1% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
26%
23%
20%
SinkerCurveball4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSlider
Jack Perkins
RHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
6.50
IP
98.1
K/9
10.6
BB/9
4.3
WHIP
1.54
L5 STARTS4.67 ERA · 23.3% K · 15.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
31%
17%
9%
4-Seam FastballSweeperChangeupCutterSinker
MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBlue Jays 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TOR ATH

Game Markets

TOR @ ATH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TOR to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

ATH F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

39%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

42%

Run Line

ATH -1.5

30%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

39%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

33%

THE READ

TOR projects to outscore ATH by 0.42 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TOR 4.11, ATH 3.69
  • José Soriano (TOR) vs Jack Perkins (ATH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JS

José Soriano

TOR SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

48%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

38%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

24%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 63% to reach 5+ against ATH
JP

Jack Perkins

ATH SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

39%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

8%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

34%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

22%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
  • 67% to reach 5+ against TOR

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

JOSÉ SORIANO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%28.1%OPS-against.548
vs Left-handedK%22.3%OPS-against.701
ATH vs RHP (team)OPS.722K%21.6%

JACK PERKINS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.7%OPS-against.815
vs Left-handedK%29.2%OPS-against.829
TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.706K%18.8%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

ATH BATTERS vs JOSÉ SORIANO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TOR BATTERS vs JACK PERKINS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TOR 0·ATH 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
TOR 3·ATH 1
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
95%TOR
TOR 61 · ATH 3 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-08ATH 6-5 · One-run game
2026-03-29TOR 5-2
2026-03-28TOR 8-7 · Slugfest
MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

LINEUP FORM · L15

TOR OFFENSE

.325L15 team wOBA
+9 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

ATH OFFENSE

.326L15 team wOBA
+10 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
ENVIRONMENT

Park factors unavailable.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO