BETFLYAISIGN IN
TEXASTEX
71-73 · +2 AL WEST · W1 · 5-5 L10
@TUE 9:40 PM ETSEA HOME PARK
67-77 · +3 AL WEST · W1 · 3-7 L10
SEATTLESEA
Weather
70°F · 7mph in from CF
Home plate ump
Jordan Baker K-0.4%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Cal Quantrill
RHP · TEXPROBABLE
STUFF+90
ERA
2.79
IP
96.2
K/9
6.8
BB/9
2.2
WHIP
1.07
L5 STARTS1.16 ERA · 25.6% K · 4.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
28%
19%
19%
CutterSinker4-Seam FastballSplit-Finger
Bryce Miller
RHP · SEAPROBABLE
STUFF+110
ERA
4.01
IP
98.2
K/9
8.7
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.11
L5 STARTS8.04 ERA · 18.6% K · 11.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
44%
24%
12%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSliderSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS7 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Cal Raleigh · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

elite contact + lineup behind sees traffic

+145 BetRivers41% book58% +17pp

Dominic Canzone · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

lineup spot does the work — RBIs come

+222 DraftKings31% book42% +11pp

Corey Seager · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

elite contact running hot

-145 Bovada59% book66% +7pp

Cal Raleigh · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

elite contact running hot

-150 Bovada60% book66% +6pp

Josh Naylor · Under 0.5 <1 Hits

barrel% surging, sees enough PAs

+188 DraftKings35% book41% +6pp

Brandon Nimmo · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

extra-base ceiling vs a flyball pitcher

-164 DraftKings62% book68% +6pp

Josh Naylor · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

matchup grade unlocks TB upside

-176 DraftKings64% book69% +5pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMariners 59%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

TEX SEA

Game Markets

TEX @ SEA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SEA to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

SEA F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

33%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

39%

Run Line

SEA -1.5

40%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

28%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

36%

THE READ

SEA projects to outscore TEX by 0.64 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TEX 3.28, SEA 3.92
  • Cal Quantrill (TEX) vs Bryce Miller (SEA)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
CQ

Cal Quantrill

TEX SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

63%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 25% to reach 5+ against SEA
BM

Bryce Miller

SEA SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

52%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

5%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

32%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

20%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 51% to reach 5+ against TEX
JP

Joc Pederson

TEX · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Bryce Miller
DC

Dominic Canzone

SEA · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Cal Quantrill
RA

Randy Arozarena

SEA · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cal Quantrill
CR

Cal Raleigh

SEA · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cal Quantrill
JR

Julio Rodríguez

SEA · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Cal Quantrill
WL

Wyatt Langford

TEX · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Bryce Miller
CS

Corey Seager

TEX · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Bryce Miller
JN

Josh Naylor

SEA · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 21% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Cal Quantrill
JB

Jake Burger

TEX · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Bryce Miller
BN

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Bryce Miller
ED

Ezequiel Duran

TEX · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Bryce Miller
CY

Cole Young

SEA · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cal Quantrill
LM

Lazaro Montes

SEA · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Cal Quantrill
JC

J.P. Crawford

SEA · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Cal Quantrill
BR

Brock Rodden

SEA · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 58%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cal Quantrill
NL

Nicky Lopez

TEX · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 58%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Bryce Miller
EC

Evan Carter

TEX · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

44%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 44% against 58%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Bryce Miller
DJ

Danny Jansen

TEX · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

39%

Hits

2+ hits

8%

Total Bases

2+ bases

19%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

16%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 39% against 58%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Bryce Miller
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CAL QUANTRILL SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SEA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%14.6%OPS-against.556
vs Left-handedK%21.9%OPS-against.679
SEA vs RHP (team)OPS.711K%22.8%

BRYCE MILLER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%26.0%OPS-against.617
vs Left-handedK%22.3%OPS-against.762
TEX vs RHP (team)OPS.697K%22.2%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SEA BATTERS vs CAL QUANTRILL

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TEX BATTERS vs BRYCE MILLER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TEX 0·SEA 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
TEX 8·SEA 4
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%SEA
TEX 154 · SEA 169 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-27TEX 7-3
2026-07-26SEA 6-4
2026-07-25TEX 7-1 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
TEX45¢ · 45%
SEA58¢ · 58%
Total 7.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
TEX -1.5— · —
SEA +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

TEX OFFENSE

.336L15 team wOBA
+20 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

SEA OFFENSE

.296L15 team wOBA
-20 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT70° · 7mph in from CF
T-MOBILE PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Notorious pitcher park.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
70°F
Wind7 mph in from CF
Humidity61%
Rain0%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
BAKER
Called K rate-0.4% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr333

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

MARINERS 59%

Mean score sim 3.3–3.9 · projected total 7.2 runs · built on locked lineups

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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