BETFLYAISIGN IN
TAMPA BAYTB
85-58 · +1 AL EAST · L1 · 6-4 L10
@TUE 7:15 PM ETATL HOME PARK
85-59 · +1 NL EAST · L1 · 6-4 L10
ATLANTAATL
Weather
87°F · 7mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Freddy Peralta
RHP · TBPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
4.96
IP
147.0
K/9
8.6
BB/9
3.3
WHIP
1.37
L5 STARTS3.39 ERA · 21.4% K · 4.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
53%
22%
15%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCurveballSliderSweeper
AJ Smith-Shawver
RHP · ATLPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
7.13
IP
17.2
K/9
7.6
BB/9
5.6
WHIP
1.75
L5 STARTS7.33 ERA · 17.9% K · 13.1% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBraves 50%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TB ATL

Game Markets

TB @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

50%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

33%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.45 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: TB 4.34, ATL 4.11
  • Freddy Peralta (TB) vs AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
FP

Freddy Peralta

TB SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

68%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

19%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 58% to reach 5+ against ATL
AS

AJ Smith-Shawver

ATL SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

23%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 19% to reach 5+ against TB

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

FREDDY PERALTA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.2%OPS-against.742
vs Left-handedK%22.6%OPS-against.811
ATL vs RHP (team)OPS.735K%22.2%

AJ SMITH-SHAWVER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.2%OPS-against.102
vs Left-handedK%13.7%OPS-against.664
TB vs RHP (team)OPS.750K%18.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

ATL BATTERS vs FREDDY PERALTA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TB BATTERS vs AJ SMITH-SHAWVER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TB 0·ATL 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
TB 1·ATL 5
6 played · 13 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%ATL
TB 30 · ATL 40 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-03-24ATL 3-2 · One-run game
2026-03-16ATL 11-2 · Blowout
2026-03-11ATL 5-3
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
TB50¢ · 50%
ATL54¢ · 54%
Total 8
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
TB -1.5— · —
ATL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→8.5→8→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

TB OFFENSE

.305L15 team wOBA
-12 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

ATL OFFENSE

.304L15 team wOBA
-12 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT87° · 7mph in from CF
TRUIST PARK
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.03 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

HR-friendly, especially to LF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
87°F
Wind7 mph in from CF
Humidity37%
Rain0%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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