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AI MODEL READ

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TB vs ATL

Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the TB @ ATL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

TAMPA BAYTB
0·0
ATLANTAATL
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

TB DUGOUTATL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

TB Leadoff (R) vs HP

CH85.6
FB94.2
SL84.4
SL82.9
CH82.4

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

TB Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · TB LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

ATL to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

ATL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL ATL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

ATL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYTB Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 16 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

TB STARTER

Freddy Peralta

AVERAGE
5.2
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 52% · 22% whiffChangeup · 23% · 29% whiffCurveball · 14% · 34% whiff

ATL STARTER

AJ Smith-Shawver

AVERAGE
2.4
PROJECTED Ks
100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 41% · 10% whiffSplit-Finger · 37% · 37% whiff

AJ Smith-Shawver grades avg (Pitching+ 100) vs Freddy Peralta grades avg (Pitching+ 102)

TB LINEUP

  1. 1Yandy Díaz (R)hit 70% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jonathan Aranda (L)hit 65% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Junior Caminero (R)hit 68% · HR 26%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Liam Hicks (L)hit 61% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Chandler Simpson (L)hit 66% · HR 3%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    3%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jonny DeLuca (R)hit 56% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Victor Mesa Jr. (L)hit 54% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Richie Palacios (L)hit 53% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jorge Mateo (R)hit 49% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

ATL LINEUP

  1. 1Michael Harris II (L)hit 71% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)hit 65% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Matt Olson (L)hit 63% · HR 26%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Drake Baldwin (L)hit 65% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Mauricio Dubón (R)hit 56% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Ozzie Albies (S)hit 52% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Austin Riley (R)hit 53% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Mike Yastrzemski (L)hit 49% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Sean Murphy (R)hit 47% · HR 12%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

TB ATL

Game Markets

TB @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATL to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

36%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.39 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: TB 4.19, ATL 4.20
  • Freddy Peralta (TB) vs AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
FP

Freddy Peralta

TB SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

21%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 63% to reach 5+ against ATL
AS

AJ Smith-Shawver

ATL SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

8%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

26%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.4 strikeouts
  • 8% to reach 5+ against TB
MO

Matt Olson

ATL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
JC

Junior Caminero

TB · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing AJ Smith-Shawver
MI

Michael Harris II

ATL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
YD

Yandy Díaz

TB · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing AJ Smith-Shawver
RJ

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
DB

Drake Baldwin

ATL · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
CS

Chandler Simpson

TB · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

3%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing AJ Smith-Shawver
JA

Jonathan Aranda

TB · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing AJ Smith-Shawver
LH

Liam Hicks

TB · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing AJ Smith-Shawver
VJ

Victor Mesa Jr.

TB · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing AJ Smith-Shawver
AR

Austin Riley

ATL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
JD

Jonny DeLuca

TB · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing AJ Smith-Shawver
MD

Mauricio Dubón

ATL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
SM

Sean Murphy

ATL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 13%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
RP

Richie Palacios

TB · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing AJ Smith-Shawver
OA

Ozzie Albies

ATL · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
JM

Jorge Mateo

TB · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 25% against 29%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing AJ Smith-Shawver
MY

Mike Yastrzemski

ATL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Freddy Peralta

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.