BETFLYAISIGN IN
ST. LOUISSTL
72-73 · +3 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 5-5 L10
@TUE 9:45 PM ETSF HOME PARK
60-85 · +4 NL WEST · W1 · 5-5 L10
SAN FRANCISCOSF
Weather
76°F · 13mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Quinn Mathews
LHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
4.38
IP
24.2
K/9
8.8
BB/9
4.4
WHIP
1.58
L5 STARTS4.46 ERA · 21.4% K · 10.7% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Landen Roupp
RHP · SFPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
4.17
IP
144.2
K/9
8.5
BB/9
4.2
WHIP
1.29
L5 STARTS3.54 ERA · 14.8% K · 13.9% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
36%
26%
20%
14%
SinkerCurveballChangeupCutter4-Seam Fastball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Quinn Mathews · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks

modest K rate + contact-shy opp

-146 FanDuel59% book81% +22pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGiants 53%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

STL SF

Game Markets

STL @ SF · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

STL to win

47%

1st 5 Innings

SF F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

40%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

45%

Run Line

SF -1.5

35%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

37%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

37%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 7.91 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: STL 3.96, SF 3.95
  • Quinn Mathews (STL) vs Landen Roupp (SF)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
QM

Quinn Mathews

STL SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

37%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 37% to reach 5+ against SF
LR

Landen Roupp

SF SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

48%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

3%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 42% to reach 5+ against STL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

QUINN MATHEWS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.5%OPS-against.765
vs Left-handedK%35.0%OPS-against.461
SF vs RHP (team)OPS.733K%20.5%

LANDEN ROUPP SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%23.4%OPS-against.677
vs Left-handedK%21.6%OPS-against.640
STL vs LHP (team)OPS.715K%18.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SF BATTERS vs QUINN MATHEWS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

STL BATTERS vs LANDEN ROUPP

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
STL 0·SF 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
STL 0·SF 1
1 played · 18 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%STL
STL 59 · SF 53 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-08SF 5-4 · One-run game
2025-09-25SF 4-3 · One-run game
2025-09-24STL 9-8 · Slugfest
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
STL51¢ · 51%
SF51¢ · 51%
Total 8.5
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
STL -1.5— · —
SF +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→8→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

STL OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

SF OFFENSE

.329L15 team wOBA
+13 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT76° · 13mph out to CF
ORACLE PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.90 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Marine air kills carry to RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
76°F
Wind13 mph out to CF
Humidity41%
Rain0%

Wind out to CF · HR tailwind.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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