AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

PIT vs CWS

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the PIT @ CWS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

PITTSBURGHPIT

0·0

CHICAGOCWS

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

PIT Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93

SL85.7

CH83.1

FB94.7

FB93.5

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

PIT Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · PIT LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CWS to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CWS -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CWS

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CWS wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYPIT Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEPIT

LINEUP EDGEEVEN

PIT STARTER

Bubba Chandler

GOOD

4.0
PROJECTED Ks: 106
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 48% · 21% whiffSlider · 21% · 24% whiffChangeup · 15% · 25% whiff

CWS STARTER

Sean Burke

AVERAGE

6.3
PROJECTED Ks: 100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 37% · 27% whiffCurveball · 20% · 27% whiffSlider · 17% · 34% whiff

Sean Burke grades avg (Pitching+ 100) vs Bubba Chandler grades good (Pitching+ 106)

PIT LINEUP

1Konnor Griffin (R)hit 66% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
2Brandon Lowe (L)hit 70% · HR 23%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
49%
2+ BASES
35%
3+ BASES
27%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
3Bryan Reynolds (S)hit 68% · HR 13%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
4Oneil Cruz (L)hit 66% · HR 21%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
5Esmerlyn Valdez (R)hit 61% · HR 20%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
6Spencer Horwitz (L)hit 60% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
7Rafael Flores Jr. (R)hit 60% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
8Jacob Gonzalez (L)hit 57% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
9Jake Mangum (S)hit 60% · HR 5%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN

CWS LINEUP

1Sam Antonacci (L)hit 70% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
53%
SCORES A RUN
2Miguel Vargas (R)hit 69% · HR 22%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
48%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
54%
SCORES A RUN
3Munetaka Murakami (L)hit 63% · HR 29%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
29%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
35%
3+ BASES
30%
4+ BASES
45%
RBI
24%
2+ RBIs
51%
SCORES A RUN
4Andrew Benintendi (L)hit 63% · HR 13%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
5Colson Montgomery (L)hit 57% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
6Braden Montgomery (S)hit 61% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
7Tristan Peters (L)hit 67% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
8Chase Meidroth (R)hit 60% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
9Kyle Teel (L)hit 55% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

PIT CWS

Game Markets

PIT @ CWS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CWS to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

CWS F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

62%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

61%

Run Line

CWS -1.5

41%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

50%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

56%

THE READ

CWS projects to outscore PIT by 0.45 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: PIT 4.96, CWS 5.41
Bubba Chandler (PIT) vs Sean Burke (CWS)
Run on confirmed lineups

Bubba Chandler

PIT SP · vs. CWS

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

45%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.

Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
38% to reach 5+ against CWS

Sean Burke

CWS SP · vs. PIT

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

75%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

60%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

19%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

69%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

42%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 6.3 strikeouts
75% to reach 5+ against PIT

Munetaka Murakami

CWS · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Bubba Chandler

Brandon Lowe

PIT · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Sean Burke

Miguel Vargas

CWS · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Bubba Chandler

Oneil Cruz

PIT · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Sean Burke

Esmerlyn Valdez

PIT · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Sean Burke

Sam Antonacci

CWS · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Bubba Chandler

Colson Montgomery

CWS · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats L
Facing Bubba Chandler

Bryan Reynolds

PIT · bats S · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats S
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Sean Burke

Tristan Peters

CWS · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 7 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Bubba Chandler

Konnor Griffin

PIT · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Facing Sean Burke

Andrew Benintendi

CWS · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 37% against 33% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Bubba Chandler

Rafael Flores Jr.

PIT · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Facing Sean Burke

Braden Montgomery

CWS · bats S · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 6 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Bubba Chandler

Jake Mangum

PIT · bats S · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 9 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Sean Burke

Chase Meidroth

CWS · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Facing Bubba Chandler

Spencer Horwitz

PIT · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Sean Burke

Jacob Gonzalez

PIT · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 66%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Sean Burke

Kyle Teel

CWS · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 29% against 33%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Facing Bubba Chandler

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.