BETFLYAISIGN IN
NEW YORKNYM
66-78 · +5 NL EAST · W2 · 6-4 L10
@TUE 6:40 PM ETMIA HOME PARK
72-73 · +3 NL EAST · L1 · 4-6 L10
MIAMIMIA
Weather
83°F · 5mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Sean Manaea
LHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
4.70
IP
128.1
K/9
8.6
BB/9
2.9
WHIP
1.36
L5 STARTS6.10 ERA · 20.3% K · 4.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
32%
20%
9%
4-Seam FastballSweeperSinkerCutterChangeup
Sandy Alcantara
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
3.54
IP
195.2
K/9
6.5
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.19
L5 STARTS3.66 ERA · 10.4% K · 6.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
25%
22%
19%
14%
8%
SinkerChangeup4-Seam FastballCutterSweeperSliderCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMarlins 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYM MIA

Game Markets

NYM @ MIA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYM to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

MIA F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

50%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

MIA -1.5

35%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.02 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: NYM 4.56, MIA 4.46
  • Sean Manaea (NYM) vs Sandy Alcantara (MIA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SM

Sean Manaea

NYM SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

82%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

73%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

60%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 58% to reach 5+ against MIA
SA

Sandy Alcantara

MIA SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

72%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

74%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

60%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 30% to reach 5+ against NYM

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SEAN MANAEA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.6%OPS-against.867
vs Left-handedK%28.6%OPS-against.706
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.738K%21.3%

SANDY ALCANTARA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%17.8%OPS-against.629
vs Left-handedK%17.4%OPS-against.692
NYM vs LHP (team)OPS.694K%23.2%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIA BATTERS vs SEAN MANAEA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYM BATTERS vs SANDY ALCANTARA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYM 1·MIA 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYM 6·MIA 11
17 played · 2 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
59%NYM
NYM 220 · MIA 156 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-07NYM 9-4
2026-08-02MIA 2-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-08-01MIA 6-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYM47¢ · 47%
MIA57¢ · 57%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
NYM -1.5— · —
MIA +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT16.5→16→7.5→15.5→8→7.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYM OFFENSE

.311L15 team wOBA
-5 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

MIA OFFENSE

.309L15 team wOBA
-7 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT83° · 5mph out to LF
LOANDEPOT PARK
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Cavernous OF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
83°F
Wind5 mph out to LF
Humidity81%
Rain25%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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