MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Esteury Ruiz · Over 0.5 1+ Hits
hot bat vs Manaea
Brett Baty · Over 0.5 1+ Hits
lineup spot + form pushes Over
Esteury Ruiz · Over 1.5 2+ TB
extra-base ceiling vs a flyball pitcher
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
NYM @ MIA · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYM to win
51%
1st 5 Innings
MIA F5
43%
Game Total
Over 8.5
49%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
53%
Run Line
MIA -1.5
33%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
45%
Team Total
MIA Over 4.5
41%
THE READ
NYM projects to outscore MIA by 0.29 runs across 5,000 trials.
NYM SP · vs. MIA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
21%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
2%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
40%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
27%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
MIA SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
47%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
2%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
55%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
40%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
NYM · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYM · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYM · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYM · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYM · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYM · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
NYM · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
NYM · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
MIA · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
NYM · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
MIA · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
MIA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 65%.
MIA · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 65%.
MIA · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 65%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).
Cavernous OF.
Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 4.5–4.3 · projected total 8.8 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post
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