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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

MIN vs DET

Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIN @ DET simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MINNESOTAMIN
0·0
DETROITDET
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

MIN DUGOUTDET DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

MIN Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94
CV76.1
FB93.9
CV78.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

MIN Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · MIN LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

DET to win

45%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

DET -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL DET

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

DET wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYMIN Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 15 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Minnesota wins

55%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

our sim and the sharpest books agree

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

DET Over 4.5 runs

38%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 27-for-96 (.281) with 2 HR vs. this starter, career

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

MIN STARTER

Zebby Matthews

AVERAGE
3.8
PROJECTED Ks
96
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 36% · 13% whiffSlider · 22% · 34% whiffChangeup · 13% · 18% whiff

DET STARTER

Keider Montero

AVERAGE
2.8
PROJECTED Ks
95
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 31% · 14% whiffSinker · 22% · 9% whiffSlider · 19% · 29% whiff

Keider Montero grades avg (Pitching+ 95) vs Zebby Matthews grades avg (Pitching+ 96)

MIN LINEUP

  1. 1Luke Keaschall (R)hit 62% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brooks Lee (S)hit 58% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Kody Clemens (L)hit 58% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ryan Jeffers (R)hit 59% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Josh Bell (S)hit 57% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Royce Lewis (R)hit 53% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Trevor Larnach (L)hit 57% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Kaelen Culpepper (R)hit 56% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Walker Jenkins (L)hit 44% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

DET LINEUP

  1. 1Kevin McGonigle (L)hit 65% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Gleyber Torres (R)hit 62% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Colt Keith (L)hit 63% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Riley Greene (L)hit 65% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Eduardo Valencia (R)hit 63% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Brett Callahan (L)hit 50% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Max Clark (L)hit 53% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Hao-Yu Lee (R)hit 56% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Zach McKinstry (L)hit 46% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    20%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIN DET

Game Markets

MIN @ DET · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIN to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

DET F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

50%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

DET -1.5

35%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.90 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: MIN 4.47, DET 4.43
  • Zebby Matthews (MIN) vs Keider Montero (DET)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
ZM

Zebby Matthews

MIN SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

41%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 34% to reach 5+ against DET
KM

Keider Montero

DET SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

29%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
  • 14% to reach 5+ against MIN
RG

Riley Greene

DET · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Zebby Matthews
EV

Eduardo Valencia

DET · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Zebby Matthews
RJ

Ryan Jeffers

MIN · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Keider Montero
KC

Kody Clemens

MIN · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Keider Montero
KM

Kevin McGonigle

DET · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zebby Matthews
GT

Gleyber Torres

DET · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Zebby Matthews
LK

Luke Keaschall

MIN · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Keider Montero
CK

Colt Keith

DET · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zebby Matthews
BL

Brooks Lee

MIN · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Facing Keider Montero
JB

Josh Bell

MIN · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Keider Montero
TL

Trevor Larnach

MIN · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Keider Montero
KC

Kaelen Culpepper

MIN · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Keider Montero
RL

Royce Lewis

MIN · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Keider Montero
HL

Hao-Yu Lee

DET · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Zebby Matthews
MC

Max Clark

DET · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Zebby Matthews
BC

Brett Callahan

DET · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 60%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zebby Matthews
ZM

Zach McKinstry

DET · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zebby Matthews
WJ

Walker Jenkins

MIN · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Keider Montero

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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