Not cataloged
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Reid Detmers · Over 5.5 6+ Ks
K-monster arsenal
Patrick Sandoval · Under 15.5 <16 Outs
high-pitch-count grinder in a tough matchup
Patrick Sandoval · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
K projection runs under in this matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
LAA @ BOS · full-game reads
Moneyline
LAA to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
BOS F5
34%
Game Total
Over 8.5
50%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
50%
Run Line
BOS -1.5
29%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
49%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
38%
THE READ
LAA projects to outscore BOS by 0.82 runs across 5,000 trials.
LAA SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
90%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
80%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
48%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
32%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
95%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
66%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
49%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
BOS SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
58%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
72%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
26%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
59%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
44%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAA hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Doubles factory (Green Monster).
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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