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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

LAA vs BOS

Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the LAA @ BOS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

LOS ANGELESLAA
0·0
BOSTONBOS
TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

LAA DUGOUTBOS DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

LAA Leadoff (R) vs HP

CH85.3
SL84.3
FB94.3
CV78.9
SL84.4

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

LAA Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LAA LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

BOS to win

46%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

BOS -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL BOS

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

BOS wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLAA Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Boston wins

54%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEBOS
LINEUP EDGELAA

LAA STARTER

Ryan Johnson

SHAKY
3.7
PROJECTED Ks
86
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Cutter · 37% · 23% whiffSplit-Finger · 23% · 32% whiffSweeper · 20% · 32% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

BOS STARTER

Jake Bennett

AVERAGE
4.4
PROJECTED Ks
104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 35% · 21% whiffChangeup · 26% · 33% whiffSinker · 25% · 13% whiff

Jake Bennett grades avg (Pitching+ 104) vs Ryan Johnson grades poor (Pitching+ 86)

LAA LINEUP

  1. 1Zach Neto (R)hit 67% · HR 23%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    53%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Mike Trout (R)hit 66% · HR 22%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jose Siri (R)hit 59% · HR 23%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Vaughn Grissom (R)hit 62% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Moisés Ballesteros (L)hit 58% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Christian Moore (R)hit 52% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Kyren Paris (R)hit 57% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Denzer Guzman (R)hit 54% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Travis d'Arnaud (R)hit 46% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

BOS LINEUP

  1. 1Roman Anthony (L)hit 66% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jahmai Jones (R)hit 63% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Wilyer Abreu (L)hit 67% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Trevor Story (R)hit 57% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nick Sogard (S)hit 58% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Caleb Durbin (R)hit 57% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Andruw Monasterio (R)hit 53% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Eli White (R)hit 56% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Connor Wong (R)hit 51% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

LAA BOS

Game Markets

LAA @ BOS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BOS to win

63%

1st 5 Innings

BOS F5

55%

Game Total

Over 8.5

59%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

60%

Run Line

BOS -1.5

47%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

58%

THE READ

BOS projects to outscore LAA by 1.19 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: LAA 4.44, BOS 5.63
  • Ryan Johnson (LAA) vs Jake Bennett (BOS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RJ

Ryan Johnson

LAA SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

75%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

33%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

71%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

58%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 31% to reach 5+ against BOS
JB

Jake Bennett

BOS SP · vs. LAA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

85%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

52%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

68%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

55%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 45% to reach 5+ against LAA
ZN

Zach Neto

LAA · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Jake Bennett
JS

Jose Siri

LAA · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jake Bennett
MT

Mike Trout

LAA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Jake Bennett
WA

Wilyer Abreu

BOS · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
RA

Roman Anthony

BOS · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
JJ

Jahmai Jones

BOS · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
VG

Vaughn Grissom

LAA · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jake Bennett
KP

Kyren Paris

LAA · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Jake Bennett
MB

Moisés Ballesteros

LAA · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jake Bennett
NS

Nick Sogard

BOS · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
CD

Caleb Durbin

BOS · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
TS

Trevor Story

BOS · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
EW

Eli White

BOS · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
DG

Denzer Guzman

LAA · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jake Bennett
AM

Andruw Monasterio

BOS · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
CM

Christian Moore

LAA · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jake Bennett
CW

Connor Wong

BOS · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
TD

Travis d'Arnaud

LAA · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 13%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jake Bennett

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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