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HOUSTONHOU
73-71 · +1 AL WEST · L2 · 6-4 L10
@TUE 6:40 PM ETPHI HOME PARK
81-63 · +2 NL EAST · W1 · 7-3 L10
PHILADELPHIAPHI
Weather
82°F · 5mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Hayden Wesneski
RHP · HOUPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
3.18
IP
39.2
K/9
7.5
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.06
L5 STARTS2.89 ERA · 22.7% K · 9.1% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Andrew Painter
RHP · PHIPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
5.55
IP
105.1
K/9
7.8
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.37
L5 STARTS3.29 ERA · 23.9% K · 7.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
21%
14%
11%
11%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderSplit-FingerSweeperSinkerCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Hayden Wesneski · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

K-monster arsenal

-130 BetOnline.57% book72% +16pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

HOU PHI

Game Markets

HOU @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

48%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

31%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

36%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore PHI by 0.43 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: HOU 4.32, PHI 3.89
  • Hayden Wesneski (HOU) vs Andrew Painter (PHI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
HW

Hayden Wesneski

HOU SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

54%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

23%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 49% to reach 5+ against PHI
AP

Andrew Painter

PHI SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

91%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

56%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 58% to reach 5+ against HOU

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

HAYDEN WESNESKI SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.0%OPS-against.620
vs Left-handedK%21.5%OPS-against.565
PHI vs RHP (team)OPS.711K%22.0%

ANDREW PAINTER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.5%OPS-against.682
vs Left-handedK%17.5%OPS-against.812
HOU vs RHP (team)OPS.728K%21.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PHI BATTERS vs HAYDEN WESNESKI

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

HOU BATTERS vs ANDREW PAINTER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
HOU 0·PHI 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
HOU 0·PHI 0
0 played · 19 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%HOU
HOU 33 · PHI 31 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2025-06-26HOU 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2025-06-26HOU 2-0 · Pitchers duel
2025-06-25HOU 1-0 · Pitchers duel
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
HOU44¢ · 44%
PHI59¢ · 59%
Total 8.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
HOU -1.5— · —
PHI +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→9→8.5→9→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

HOU OFFENSE

.286L15 team wOBA
-30 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

PHI OFFENSE

.295L15 team wOBA
-21 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT82° · 5mph out to RF
CITIZENS BANK PARK
110HR
HR factor1.10 · +
Runs factor1.02 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
82°F
Wind5 mph out to RF
Humidity36%
Rain1%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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