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AI MODEL READ

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HOU vs PHI

Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the HOU @ PHI simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

HOUSTONHOU
1·0
PHILADELPHIAPHI
TOP 11-00 OUT

FIELD

HOU DUGOUTPHI DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

HOU Leadoff (R) vs HP

CH85.8
FB93.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

HOU Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · HOU LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PHI to win

47%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PHI -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PHI

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PHI wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYHOU Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Philadelphia wins

53%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEPHI
LINEUP EDGEHOU

HOU STARTER

Hunter Brown

AVERAGE
5.4
PROJECTED Ks
101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 32% · 23% whiffSinker · 30% · 20% whiffCurveball · 19% · 33% whiff

PHI STARTER

Cristopher Sánchez

GOOD
8.8
PROJECTED Ks
113
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 44% · 12% whiffChangeup · 38% · 47% whiffSlider · 19% · 45% whiff

Cristopher Sánchez grades good (Pitching+ 113) vs Hunter Brown grades avg (Pitching+ 101)

HOU LINEUP

  1. 1Jeremy Peña (R)hit 66% · HR 17%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Yordan Alvarez (L)hit 73% · HR 26%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Isaac Paredes (R)hit 61% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jose Altuve (R)hit 59% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Daulton Varsho (L)hit 57% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Yainer Diaz (R)hit 65% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Christian Walker (R)hit 58% · HR 18%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Taylor Trammell (L)hit 52% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Cam Smith (R)hit 53% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

PHI LINEUP

  1. 1Kyle Schwarber (L)hit 64% · HR 31%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    31%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Trea Turner (R)hit 60% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryce Harper (L)hit 69% · HR 26%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Luis Arraez (L)hit 67% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Alec Bohm (R)hit 59% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Bryson Stott (L)hit 56% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Brandon Marsh (L)hit 60% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8J.T. Realmuto (R)hit 50% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Justin Crawford (L)hit 54% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

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169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

HOU PHI

Game Markets

HOU @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

49%

Game Total

Over 8.5

35%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

39%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

38%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

30%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

37%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore HOU by 0.52 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: HOU 3.45, PHI 3.97
  • Hunter Brown (HOU) vs Cristopher Sánchez (PHI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
HB

Hunter Brown

HOU SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 67% to reach 5+ against PHI
CS

Cristopher Sánchez

PHI SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

97%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

92%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

70%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

54%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

98%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.8 strikeouts
  • 97% to reach 5+ against HOU
KS

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

31%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Hunter Brown
YA

Yordan Alvarez

HOU · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
BH

Bryce Harper

PHI · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Hunter Brown
LA

Luis Arraez

PHI · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Hunter Brown
CW

Christian Walker

HOU · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
JP

Jeremy Peña

HOU · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
YD

Yainer Diaz

HOU · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
BM

Brandon Marsh

PHI · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Hunter Brown
IP

Isaac Paredes

HOU · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
TT

Trea Turner

PHI · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Hunter Brown
AB

Alec Bohm

PHI · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Hunter Brown
JA

Jose Altuve

HOU · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
DV

Daulton Varsho

HOU · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
BS

Bryson Stott

PHI · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Hunter Brown
TT

Taylor Trammell

HOU · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 13% against 14%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
JC

Justin Crawford

PHI · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Hunter Brown
CS

Cam Smith

HOU · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
JR

J.T. Realmuto

PHI · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Hunter Brown

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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