AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCOL vs NYY
Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees
Tuesday, September 8, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the COL @ NYY simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
COL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
COL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · COL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
NYY to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
NYY -1.5
TEAM TOTAL NYY
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
NYY wins F5
event 1 / 19 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
COL STARTER
Tomoyuki Sugano
SHAKY- 2.4
- PROJECTED Ks
- 89
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball, Sinker are getting hit hard lately.
NYY STARTER
Will Warren
GOOD- 4.4
- PROJECTED Ks
- 111
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Will Warren grades good (Pitching+ 111) vs Tomoyuki Sugano grades poor (Pitching+ 89)
COL LINEUP
1Jake McCarthy (L)hit 64% · HR 11%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
2Cole Carrigg (S)hit 58% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
3TJ Rumfield (L)hit 64% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
4Hunter Goodman (R)hit 59% · HR 27%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
27%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
27%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
5Mickey Moniak (L)hit 60% · HR 22%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
6Kyle Karroshit 56% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
7Adael Amador (S)hit 49% · HR 9%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
8Zac Veen (L)hit 46% · HR 7%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
17%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
23%
SCORES A RUN
9Ezequiel Tovar (R)hit 45% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
45%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
16%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
22%
SCORES A RUN
NYY LINEUP
1Ben Rice (L)hit 75% · HR 30%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
75%
1+ HIT
38%
2+ HITS
30%
HOME RUN
55%
2+ BASES
40%
3+ BASES
33%
4+ BASES
42%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
62%
SCORES A RUN
2Cody Bellinger (L)hit 69% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
55%
SCORES A RUN
3Aaron Judgehit 74% · HR 26%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
74%
1+ HIT
38%
2+ HITS
26%
HOME RUN
53%
2+ BASES
37%
3+ BASES
30%
4+ BASES
46%
RBI
24%
2+ RBIs
57%
SCORES A RUN
4Luis García Jr. (L)hit 76% · HR 27%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
76%
1+ HIT
38%
2+ HITS
27%
HOME RUN
54%
2+ BASES
39%
3+ BASES
30%
4+ BASES
51%
RBI
27%
2+ RBIs
53%
SCORES A RUN
5Spencer Jones (L)hit 68% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
6Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)hit 66% · HR 19%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
48%
SCORES A RUN
7George Lombard Jr. (R)hit 64% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
8Ryan McMahon (L)hit 62% · HR 16%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
9Austin Wells (L)hit 56% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
COL @ NYY · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYY to win
65%
1st 5 Innings
NYY F5
56%
Game Total
Over 8.5
64%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
65%
Run Line
NYY -1.5
50%
Team Total
COL Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
63%
THE READ
NYY projects to outscore COL by 1.55 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: COL 4.50, NYY 6.04
- Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) vs Will Warren (NYY)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Tomoyuki Sugano
COL SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
64%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
29%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
75%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
64%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.4 strikeouts
- 9% to reach 5+ against NYY
Will Warren
NYY SP · vs. COL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
66%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
31%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
58%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
43%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
- 45% to reach 5+ against COL
Luis García Jr.
NYY · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
53%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
28%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 28% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
Ben Rice
NYY · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
Aaron Judge
NYY · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
Hunter Goodman
COL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Will Warren
Spencer Jones
NYY · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
Mickey Moniak
COL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Will Warren
Cody Bellinger
NYY · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
Ryan McMahon
NYY · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
Jake McCarthy
COL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Will Warren
George Lombard Jr.
NYY · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 36% against 33% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
TJ Rumfield
COL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Will Warren
Cole Carrigg
COL · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 65%.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Will Warren
Austin Wells
NYY · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 65%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
Kyle Karros
COL · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 65%.
- Batting 6
- Facing Will Warren
Adael Amador
COL · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 65%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Will Warren
Zac Veen
COL · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
48%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
17%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 65%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Will Warren
Ezequiel Tovar
COL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
47%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
22%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
17%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 65%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Will Warren
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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