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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

CLE vs BAL

Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CLE @ BAL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CLEVELANDCLE
0·0
BALTIMOREBAL
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

CLE DUGOUTBAL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

CLE Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL84.2
FB93.6
FB94.2

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

CLE Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · CLE LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

BAL to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

BAL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL BAL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

BAL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCLE Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 16 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

✓ CONFIRMED

BAL Over 4.5 runs

38%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 13-for-43 (.302) with 1 HR vs. this starter, career

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEBAL
LINEUP EDGEBAL

CLE STARTER

Foster Griffin

AVERAGE
4.5
PROJECTED Ks
98
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Cutter · 33% · 20% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 17% · 17% whiffSweeper · 14% · 31% whiff

BAL STARTER

Shane Baz

AVERAGE
4.4
PROJECTED Ks
103
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 34% · 17% whiffCurveball · 33% · 30% whiffCutter · 15% · 24% whiff

Shane Baz grades avg (Pitching+ 103) vs Foster Griffin grades avg (Pitching+ 98)

CLE LINEUP

  1. 1Steven Kwan (L)hit 65% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Travis Bazzana (L)hit 60% · HR 10%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3José Ramírez (S)hit 59% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jo Adell (R)hit 59% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nathaniel Lowe (L)hit 61% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Angel Martínez (S)hit 54% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Patrick Bailey (S)hit 51% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Petey Halpin (L)hit 55% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Brayan Rocchio (S)hit 52% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

BAL LINEUP

  1. 1Jackson Holliday (L)hit 60% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Pete Alonso (R)hit 70% · HR 27%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Gunnar Henderson (L)hit 62% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Coby Mayo (R)hit 58% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Samuel Basallo (L)hit 60% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Dylan Beavers (L)hit 56% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Blaze Alexander (R)hit 63% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Colton Cowser (L)hit 54% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Leody Taveras (S)hit 50% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CLE BAL

Game Markets

CLE @ BAL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

48%

1st 5 Innings

BAL F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

50%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

54%

Run Line

BAL -1.5

34%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

44%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.85 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: CLE 4.45, BAL 4.40
  • Foster Griffin (CLE) vs Shane Baz (BAL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
FG

Foster Griffin

CLE SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

97%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

44%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

69%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

55%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 47% to reach 5+ against BAL
SB

Shane Baz

BAL SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

77%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

47%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 45% to reach 5+ against CLE
PA

Pete Alonso

BAL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Foster Griffin
SB

Samuel Basallo

BAL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Foster Griffin
SK

Steven Kwan

CLE · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Shane Baz
CC

Colton Cowser

BAL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Foster Griffin
CM

Coby Mayo

BAL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Foster Griffin
NL

Nathaniel Lowe

CLE · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Shane Baz
GH

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Foster Griffin
JA

Jo Adell

CLE · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Shane Baz
BA

Blaze Alexander

BAL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Foster Griffin
JH

Jackson Holliday

BAL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Foster Griffin
TB

Travis Bazzana

CLE · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Shane Baz
JR

José Ramírez

CLE · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shane Baz
DB

Dylan Beavers

BAL · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Foster Griffin
PH

Petey Halpin

CLE · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shane Baz
AM

Angel Martínez

CLE · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 12%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Facing Shane Baz
BR

Brayan Rocchio

CLE · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shane Baz
PB

Patrick Bailey

CLE · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Facing Shane Baz
LT

Leody Taveras

BAL · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Foster Griffin

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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