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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

CIN vs LAD

Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CIN @ LAD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CINCINNATICIN
0·0
LOS ANGELESLAD
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

CIN DUGOUTLAD DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

FB94
FB94.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

LAD to win

67%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

LAD -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL LAD

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

LAD wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 75 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

LAD Over 4.5 runs

47%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 9-for-30 (.300) with 1 HR vs. this starter, career · 88°F, 14mph wind

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGELAD
LINEUP EDGELAD

CIN STARTER

Rhett Lowder

SHAKY
2.8
PROJECTED Ks
92
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 29% · 7% whiffSlider · 27% · 32% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 21% · 13% whiff

LAD STARTER

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

GOOD
6.8
PROJECTED Ks
110
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Split-Finger · 27% · 33% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 29% whiffCutter · 15% · 24% whiff

Yoshinobu Yamamoto grades good (Pitching+ 110) vs Rhett Lowder grades poor (Pitching+ 92)

CIN LINEUP

  1. 1Dane Myers (R)hit 57% · HR 12%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 65% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Sal Stewart (R)hit 62% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Tyler Stephenson (R)hit 51% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 45% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    45%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6JJ Bleday (L)hit 48% · HR 13%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jose Trevino (R)hit 46% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    20%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Matt McLain (R)hit 41% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    41%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Héctor Rodríguez (L)hit 47% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

LAD LINEUP

  1. 1Tommy Edman (S)hit 66% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Mookie Betts (R)hit 66% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Will Smith (R)hit 67% · HR 16%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Freddie Freeman (L)hit 71% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 69% · HR 24%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Miguel Rojas (R)hit 62% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Alex Call (R)hit 58% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Max Muncy (L)hit 58% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Enrique Hernández (R)hit 52% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CIN LAD

Game Markets

CIN @ LAD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

66%

1st 5 Innings

LAD F5

58%

Game Total

Over 8.5

51%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

54%

Run Line

LAD -1.5

48%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

34%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

52%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore CIN by 1.41 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CIN 3.73, LAD 5.14
  • Rhett Lowder (CIN) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RL

Rhett Lowder

CIN SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

46%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

47%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
  • 15% to reach 5+ against LAD
YY

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

LAD SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

85%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

23%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

99%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

69%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

56%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.8 strikeouts
  • 85% to reach 5+ against CIN
TH

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
FF

Freddie Freeman

LAD · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
EC

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
MM

Max Muncy

LAD · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
MB

Mookie Betts

LAD · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
SS

Sal Stewart

CIN · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
WS

Will Smith

LAD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
TE

Tommy Edman

LAD · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
MR

Miguel Rojas

LAD · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
ES

Eugenio Suárez

CIN · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 47%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
AC

Alex Call

LAD · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
DM

Dane Myers

CIN · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
EH

Enrique Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
TS

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 60%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
JB

JJ Bleday

CIN · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 13% against 14%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
HR

Héctor Rodríguez

CIN · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
JT

Jose Trevino

CIN · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

16%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
MM

Matt McLain

CIN · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

43%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 14%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.