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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

CHC vs MIL

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CHC @ MIL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CHICAGOCHC
0·0
MILWAUKEEMIL
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

CHC DUGOUTMIL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

FB93.1
FB93.2
FB94.2
SL83.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

MIL to win

63%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

MIL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL MIL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

MIL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 78 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEMIL

CHC STARTER

Kevin Gausman

AVERAGE
5.8
PROJECTED Ks
104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 51% · 15% whiffSplit-Finger · 39% · 42% whiff

MIL STARTER

Logan Henderson

GOOD
5.5
PROJECTED Ks
106
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 46% · 22% whiffChangeup · 34% · 37% whiffCutter · 17% · 21% whiff

Logan Henderson grades good (Pitching+ 106) vs Kevin Gausman grades avg (Pitching+ 104)

CHC LINEUP

  1. 1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)hit 57% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Seiya Suzuki (R)hit 57% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Alex Bregman (R)hit 53% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Michael Busch (L)hit 48% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nico Hoerner (R)hit 53% · HR 4%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    5%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Ian Happ (S)hit 45% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    45%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Matt Shaw (R)hit 47% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Tyrone Taylor (R)hit 49% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Miguel Amaya (R)hit 39% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    39%

    1+ HIT

    8%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    17%

    2+ BASES

    8%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    15%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    21%

    SCORES A RUN

MIL LINEUP

  1. 1Jackson Chourio (R)hit 73% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    36%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brice Turang (L)hit 65% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Andrew Vaughn (R)hit 72% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4William Contreras (R)hit 66% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Gary Sánchez (R)hit 60% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Luis Lara (S)hit 61% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Joey Ortiz (R)hit 58% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Garrett Mitchell (L)hit 64% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Cooper Pratt (R)hit 58% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CHC MIL

Game Markets

CHC @ MIL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

64%

1st 5 Innings

MIL F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

38%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

40%

Run Line

MIL -1.5

43%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

29%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore CHC by 0.98 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CHC 3.38, MIL 4.36
  • Kevin Gausman (CHC) vs Logan Henderson (MIL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
KG

Kevin Gausman

CHC SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

70%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

13%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

77%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

46%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
  • 70% to reach 5+ against MIL
LH

Logan Henderson

MIL SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

68%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

70%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

7%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

41%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
  • 68% to reach 5+ against CHC
JC

Jackson Chourio

MIL · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
PC

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Logan Henderson
AV

Andrew Vaughn

MIL · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
GS

Gary Sánchez

MIL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
SS

Seiya Suzuki

CHC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Logan Henderson
GM

Garrett Mitchell

MIL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
WC

William Contreras

MIL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
BT

Brice Turang

MIL · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
LL

Luis Lara

MIL · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
CP

Cooper Pratt

MIL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 31% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
IH

Ian Happ

CHC · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Facing Logan Henderson
JO

Joey Ortiz

MIL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
NH

Nico Hoerner

CHC · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

5%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 60%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Henderson
AB

Alex Bregman

CHC · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 60%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Logan Henderson
MB

Michael Busch

CHC · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 12%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Logan Henderson
TT

Tyrone Taylor

CHC · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 60%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Logan Henderson
MS

Matt Shaw

CHC · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Logan Henderson
MA

Miguel Amaya

CHC · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

41%

Hits

2+ hits

8%

Total Bases

2+ bases

18%

Total Bases

3+ bases

9%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 41% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Logan Henderson

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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