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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

WSH vs SD

Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres

Monday, September 7, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the WSH @ SD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

WASHINGTONWSH
0·0
SAN DIEGOSD
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

WSH DUGOUTSD DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

WSH Leadoff (R) vs HP

CV76.3
FB94.2

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

WSH Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · WSH LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SD to win

58%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SD -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SD

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SD wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYWSH Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 18 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

San Diego wins

42%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESD
LINEUP EDGESD

WSH STARTER

Riley Cornelio

SHAKY
4.7
PROJECTED Ks
84
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Slider · 51% · 51% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 44% · 15% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

SD STARTER

Casey Mize

AVERAGE
3.8
PROJECTED Ks
98
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 35% · 21% whiffSlider · 28% · 26% whiffSplit-Finger · 23% · 30% whiff

Casey Mize grades avg (Pitching+ 98) vs Riley Cornelio grades poor (Pitching+ 84)

WSH LINEUP

  1. 1James Wood (L)hit 65% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Abimelec Ortiz (L)hit 56% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Dylan Crews (R)hit 55% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4CJ Abrams (L)hit 61% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brady House (R)hit 55% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Daylen Lile (L)hit 60% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Keibert Ruiz (S)hit 57% · HR 7%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jorbit Vivas (L)hit 51% · HR 4%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jacob Young (R)hit 52% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

SD LINEUP

  1. 1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)hit 70% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jake Cronenworth (L)hit 55% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Manny Machado (R)hit 61% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ty France (R)hit 64% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jackson Merrill (L)hit 63% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Luis Campusano (R)hit 61% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Dustin Harris (L)hit 56% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Xander Bogaerts (R)hit 51% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ethan Salas (L)hit 53% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

WSH SD

Game Markets

WSH @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

44%

Run Line

SD -1.5

37%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.20 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: WSH 3.99, SD 4.22
  • Riley Cornelio (WSH) vs Casey Mize (SD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RC

Riley Cornelio

WSH SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

17%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

25%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

15%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
  • 50% to reach 5+ against SD
CM

Casey Mize

SD SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

47%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

15%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 34% to reach 5+ against WSH
JW

James Wood

WSH · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Casey Mize
FJ

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Riley Cornelio
MM

Manny Machado

SD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Riley Cornelio
TF

Ty France

SD · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Riley Cornelio
JM

Jackson Merrill

SD · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Riley Cornelio
CA

CJ Abrams

WSH · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Casey Mize
LC

Luis Campusano

SD · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Riley Cornelio
DL

Daylen Lile

WSH · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Casey Mize
KR

Keibert Ruiz

WSH · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Casey Mize
AO

Abimelec Ortiz

WSH · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Casey Mize
ES

Ethan Salas

SD · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Riley Cornelio
DH

Dustin Harris

SD · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Riley Cornelio
DC

Dylan Crews

WSH · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Casey Mize
BH

Brady House

WSH · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Casey Mize
JC

Jake Cronenworth

SD · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Riley Cornelio
JY

Jacob Young

WSH · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Casey Mize
JV

Jorbit Vivas

WSH · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Casey Mize
XB

Xander Bogaerts

SD · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Riley Cornelio

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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