BETFLYAISIGN IN
WASHINGTONWSH
67-78 · +4 NL EAST · L4 · 5-5 L10
@MON 5:10 PM ETSD HOME PARK
75-68 · +3 NL WEST · W1 · 4-6 L10
SAN DIEGOSD
Weather
93°F · 12mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jake Irvin
RHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
5.57
IP
85.2
K/9
9.1
BB/9
4.2
WHIP
1.40
L5 STARTS6.21 ERA · 22.3% K · 12.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
28%
26%
24%
11%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSinkerCutterSweeper
Nick Pivetta
RHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
4.50
IP
16.0
K/9
13.5
BB/9
3.4
WHIP
1.13
L5 STARTS4.50 ERA · 36.4% K · 9.1% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
58%
12%
4-Seam FastballSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPadres 57%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

WSH SD

Game Markets

WSH @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

46%

Run Line

SD -1.5

39%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

36%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

SD projects to outscore WSH by 0.53 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: WSH 3.88, SD 4.41
  • Jake Irvin (WSH) vs Nick Pivetta (SD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JI

Jake Irvin

WSH SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

26%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

37%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 33% to reach 5+ against SD
NP

Nick Pivetta

SD SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

17%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

3%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

28%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

17%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 21% to reach 5+ against WSH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JAKE IRVIN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.4%OPS-against.815
vs Left-handedK%22.6%OPS-against.740
SD vs RHP (team)OPS.706K%21.6%

NICK PIVETTA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%35.5%OPS-against.405
vs Left-handedK%37.1%OPS-against.658
WSH vs RHP (team)OPS.742K%20.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SD BATTERS vs JAKE IRVIN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

WSH BATTERS vs NICK PIVETTA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
WSH 0·SD 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
WSH 2·SD 1
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%WSH
WSH 52 · SD 50 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-05-31WSH 4-2
2026-05-30WSH 9-4
2026-05-29SD 7-5
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
WSH37¢ · 37%
SD67¢ · 67%
Total 8
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
WSH -1.5— · —
SD +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

WSH OFFENSE

.309L15 team wOBA
-7 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

SD OFFENSE

.292L15 team wOBA
-24 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT93° · 12mph out to RF
PETCO PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Marine layer suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
93°F
Wind12 mph out to RF
Humidity43%
Rain3%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO