TAMPA BAYTB
85-58 · +1 AL EAST · L1 · 6-4 L10
@2026-09-07ATL HOME PARK
85-59 · +1 NL EAST · L1 · 6-4 L10
ATLANTAATL
Weather
79°F · 7mph in from CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBraves 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TB ATL

Game Markets

TB @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

48%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

47%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

35%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.68 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: TB 4.39, ATL 4.29
  • Freddy Peralta (TB) vs AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
FP

Freddy Peralta

TB SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

83%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

34%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 65% to reach 5+ against ATL
AS

AJ Smith-Shawver

ATL SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

20%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 20% to reach 5+ against TB

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ATL vs LHP (team)OPS.698K%21.2%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

TB vs RHP (team)OPS.750K%18.6%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

ATL BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TB BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TB 0·ATL 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
TB 1·ATL 5
6 played · 13 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%ATL
TB 30 · ATL 40 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-03-24ATL 3-2 · One-run game
2026-03-16ATL 11-2 · Blowout
2026-03-11ATL 5-3
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
TB50¢ · 50%
ATL53¢ · 53%
Total 8
Over54¢ · 54%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
TB -1.5 ·
ATL +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT88.58last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

TB OFFENSE

.305L15 team wOBA
-12 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

ATL OFFENSE

.304L15 team wOBA
-12 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
ENVIRONMENT79° · 7mph in from CF
TRUIST PARK
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.03 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

HR-friendly, especially to LF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
79°F
Wind7 mph in from CF
Humidity72%
Rain1%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

BRAVES 52%

Mean score sim 4.44.3 · projected total 8.7 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read