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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

STL vs SF

St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants

Monday, September 7, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the STL @ SF simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

ST. LOUISSTL
0·0
SAN FRANCISCOSF
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

STL DUGOUTSF DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

STL Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL84.2
FB91.5
CH82.7
FB94.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

STL Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · STL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SF to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SF -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SF

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SF wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYSTL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 15 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESF
LINEUP EDGESF

STL STARTER

Quinn Mathews

AVERAGE
3.5
PROJECTED Ks
97
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 43% · 21% whiffSlider · 23% · 32% whiffChangeup · 17% · 42% whiff

SF STARTER

Landen Roupp

AVERAGE
4.0
PROJECTED Ks
104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 34% · 8% whiffCurveball · 26% · 35% whiffChangeup · 21% · 30% whiff

Landen Roupp grades avg (Pitching+ 104) vs Quinn Mathews grades avg (Pitching+ 97)

STL LINEUP

  1. 1Bryan Torres (L)hit 63% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Iván Herrera (R)hit 64% · HR 11%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Alec Burleson (L)hit 70% · HR 16%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jordan Walker (R)hit 69% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Leo Bernal (S)hit 59% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nolan Gorman (L)hit 50% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Joshua Báez (R)hit 57% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Thomas Saggese (R)hit 56% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Nathan Church (L)hit 54% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

SF LINEUP

  1. 1Turner Hill (L)hit 66% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Rafael Devers (L)hit 72% · HR 30%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    30%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    42%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryce Eldridge (L)hit 69% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jonah Cox (R)hit 64% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jung Hoo Lee (L)hit 65% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Osleivis Basabe (R)hit 61% · HR 17%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Andrew Knizner (R)hit 49% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Shay Whitcomb (R)hit 53% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Christian Koss (R)hit 53% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

STL SF

Game Markets

STL @ SF · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

STL to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

SF F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

39%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

44%

Run Line

SF -1.5

34%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

37%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

35%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 7.81 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: STL 3.94, SF 3.87
  • Quinn Mathews (STL) vs Landen Roupp (SF)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
QM

Quinn Mathews

STL SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

9%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

33%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

21%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 27% to reach 5+ against SF
LR

Landen Roupp

SF SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

28%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

38%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

24%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 36% to reach 5+ against STL
RD

Rafael Devers

SF · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
BE

Bryce Eldridge

SF · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
JW

Jordan Walker

STL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Landen Roupp
AB

Alec Burleson

STL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Landen Roupp
OB

Osleivis Basabe

SF · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
JC

Jonah Cox

SF · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
TH

Turner Hill

SF · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
JB

Joshua Báez

STL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Landen Roupp
IH

Iván Herrera

STL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Landen Roupp
JL

Jung Hoo Lee

SF · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
BT

Bryan Torres

STL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Landen Roupp
LB

Leo Bernal

STL · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Landen Roupp
SW

Shay Whitcomb

SF · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
TS

Thomas Saggese

STL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Landen Roupp
NG

Nolan Gorman

STL · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 26% against 29%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Landen Roupp
NC

Nathan Church

STL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Landen Roupp
CK

Christian Koss

SF · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
AK

Andrew Knizner

SF · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Quinn Mathews

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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