MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Logan Webb · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
modest K rate + contact-shy opp
Michael McGreevy · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
K-monster arsenal
Logan Webb · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
high-pitch-count grinder in a tough matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
STL @ SF · full-game reads
Moneyline
SF to win
56%
1st 5 Innings
SF F5
50%
Game Total
Over 8.5
45%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
51%
Run Line
SF -1.5
39%
Team Total
STL Over 4.5
38%
Team Total
SF Over 4.5
44%
THE READ
SF projects to outscore STL by 0.43 runs across 5,000 trials.
STL SP · vs. SF
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
42%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
58%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
42%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
SF SP · vs. STL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
88%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
48%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
50%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Marine air kills carry to RCF.
Wind out to CF · HR tailwind.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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