BETFLYAISIGN IN
NEW YORKNYM
65-78 · +5 NL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
@MON 1:10 PM ETMIA HOME PARK
72-72 · +3 NL EAST · W1 · 4-6 L10
MIAMIMIA
Weather
88°F · 2mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jonah Tong
RHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+97
ERA
3.60
IP
10.0
K/9
6.3
BB/9
6.3
WHIP
1.50
L5 STARTS3.87 ERA · 14.9% K · 14.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
46%
28%
4-Seam FastballChangeup
Eury Pérez
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+116
ERA
3.72
IP
135.1
K/9
9.6
BB/9
3.9
WHIP
1.18
L5 STARTS4.29 ERA · 22% K · 15.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
46%
15%
15%
10%
8%
4-Seam FastballSliderSweeperChangeupSinkerCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMarlins 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYM MIA

Game Markets

NYM @ MIA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIA to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

MIA F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

47%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

MIA -1.5

40%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

MIA projects to outscore NYM by 0.48 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYM 4.09, MIA 4.57
  • Jonah Tong (NYM) vs Eury Pérez (MIA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JT

Jonah Tong

NYM SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

48%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
  • 15% to reach 5+ against MIA
EP

Eury Pérez

MIA SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

41%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

34%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

22%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 63% to reach 5+ against NYM

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JONAH TONG SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%9.5%OPS-against.639
vs Left-handedK%19.2%OPS-against.573
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.739K%21.1%

EURY PÉREZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.5%OPS-against.755
vs Left-handedK%28.8%OPS-against.603
NYM vs RHP (team)OPS.697K%22.3%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIA BATTERS vs JONAH TONG

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYM BATTERS vs EURY PÉREZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYM 0·MIA 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYM 5·MIA 11
16 played · 3 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
58%NYM
NYM 219 · MIA 156 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-02MIA 2-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-08-01MIA 6-2
2026-07-31MIA 5-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYM50¢ · 50%
MIA53¢ · 53%
Total 8
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
NYM -1.5— · —
MIA +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→8→7.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYM OFFENSE

.302L15 team wOBA
-14 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

MIA OFFENSE

.312L15 team wOBA
-4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT88° · 2mph out to LF
LOANDEPOT PARK
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Cavernous OF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
88°F
Wind2 mph out to LF
Humidity69%
Rain9%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO