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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

NYM vs MIA

New York Mets at Miami Marlins

Monday, September 7, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the NYM @ MIA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

NEW YORKNYM
0·0
MIAMIMIA
TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

NYM DUGOUTMIA DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

NYM Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL84.3
CV76.5

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

NYM Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · NYM LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

MIA to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

MIA -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL MIA

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

MIA wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYNYM Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEMIA
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

NYM STARTER

Sean Manaea

AVERAGE
5.5
PROJECTED Ks
96
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 38% · 22% whiffSweeper · 30% · 31% whiffSinker · 20% · 7% whiff

MIA STARTER

Sandy Alcantara

AVERAGE
3.6
PROJECTED Ks
103
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 27% · 12% whiffChangeup · 21% · 28% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 18% · 21% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Sandy Alcantara grades avg (Pitching+ 103) vs Sean Manaea grades avg (Pitching+ 96)

NYM LINEUP

  1. 1Francisco Lindor (S)hit 62% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Juan Soto (L)hit 69% · HR 26%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bo Bichette (R)hit 64% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Carson Benge (L)hit 64% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Marcus Semien (R)hit 53% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6A.J. Ewing (L)hit 52% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Francisco Alvarez (R)hit 53% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Brett Baty (L)hit 53% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Nick Morabito (R)hit 48% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

MIA LINEUP

  1. 1Kyle Stowers (L)hit 68% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Heriberto Hernández (R)hit 64% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Griffin Conine (L)hit 64% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Otto Lopez (R)hit 67% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jakob Marsee (L)hit 54% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Javier Sanoja (R)hit 65% · HR 7%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Owen Caissie (L)hit 58% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Graham Pauley (L)hit 50% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Joe Mack (L)hit 55% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

NYM MIA

Game Markets

NYM @ MIA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYM to win

48%

1st 5 Innings

MIA F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

MIA -1.5

35%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.12 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: NYM 4.56, MIA 4.56
  • Sean Manaea (NYM) vs Sandy Alcantara (MIA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SM

Sean Manaea

NYM SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

98%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

79%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

68%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
  • 66% to reach 5+ against MIA
SA

Sandy Alcantara

MIA SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

67%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

73%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

60%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 28% to reach 5+ against NYM
JS

Juan Soto

NYM · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
HH

Heriberto Hernández

MIA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Sean Manaea
KS

Kyle Stowers

MIA · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sean Manaea
GC

Griffin Conine

MIA · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Sean Manaea
FL

Francisco Lindor

NYM · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
FA

Francisco Alvarez

NYM · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
OL

Otto Lopez

MIA · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sean Manaea
OC

Owen Caissie

MIA · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sean Manaea
BB

Bo Bichette

NYM · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
JS

Javier Sanoja

MIA · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sean Manaea
CB

Carson Benge

NYM · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
JM

Joe Mack

MIA · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sean Manaea
JM

Jakob Marsee

MIA · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 62%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Sean Manaea
BB

Brett Baty

NYM · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
MS

Marcus Semien

NYM · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 62%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
AE

A.J. Ewing

NYM · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
GP

Graham Pauley

MIA · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sean Manaea
NM

Nick Morabito

NYM · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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