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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

MIN vs DET

Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers

Monday, September 7, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIN @ DET simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MINNESOTAMIN
0·0
DETROITDET
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

MIN DUGOUTDET DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

MIN Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB92.5
CH88.3
FB95

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

MIN Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · MIN LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

DET to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

DET -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL DET

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

DET wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYMIN Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

✓ CONFIRMED

MIN Over 3.5 runs

50%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 13-for-38 (.342) with 5 HR vs. this starter, career · 79°F, 11mph wind

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEDET
LINEUP EDGEMIN

MIN STARTER

Dean Kremer

SHAKY
4.3
PROJECTED Ks
87
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 17% whiffSplit-Finger · 26% · 38% whiffCutter · 18% · 37% whiff

DET STARTER

Drew Anderson

AVERAGE
7.2
PROJECTED Ks
99
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 40% · 19% whiffChangeup · 31% · 38% whiffCurveball · 23% · 34% whiff

Drew Anderson grades avg (Pitching+ 99) vs Dean Kremer grades poor (Pitching+ 87)

MIN LINEUP

  1. 1Luke Keaschall (R)hit 65% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brooks Lee (S)hit 63% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Kody Clemens (L)hit 64% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ryan Jeffers (R)hit 60% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Josh Bell (S)hit 63% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Royce Lewis (R)hit 57% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Trevor Larnach (L)hit 61% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Kaelen Culpepper (R)hit 60% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Walker Jenkins (L)hit 49% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

DET LINEUP

  1. 1Colt Keith (L)hit 62% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Kevin McGonigle (L)hit 61% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Gleyber Torres (R)hit 60% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Riley Greene (L)hit 64% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Dillon Dingler (R)hit 61% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Zach McKinstry (L)hit 49% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Spencer Torkelson (R)hit 51% · HR 16%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Max Clark (L)hit 55% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9John Peck (R)hit 47% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIN DET

Game Markets

MIN @ DET · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

DET to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

DET F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

48%

Run Line

DET -1.5

37%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.32 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: MIN 4.03, DET 4.28
  • Dean Kremer (MIN) vs Drew Anderson (DET)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
DK

Dean Kremer

MIN SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

39%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

12%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 42% to reach 5+ against DET
DA

Drew Anderson

DET SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

89%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

78%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

28%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

82%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.2 strikeouts
  • 89% to reach 5+ against MIN
KC

Kody Clemens

MIN · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Drew Anderson
DD

Dillon Dingler

DET · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Dean Kremer
RG

Riley Greene

DET · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Dean Kremer
BL

Brooks Lee

MIN · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Facing Drew Anderson
JB

Josh Bell

MIN · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Drew Anderson
LK

Luke Keaschall

MIN · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Drew Anderson
ST

Spencer Torkelson

DET · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dean Kremer
RJ

Ryan Jeffers

MIN · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Drew Anderson
CK

Colt Keith

DET · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dean Kremer
TL

Trevor Larnach

MIN · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Drew Anderson
KM

Kevin McGonigle

DET · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dean Kremer
KC

Kaelen Culpepper

MIN · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Drew Anderson
GT

Gleyber Torres

DET · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Dean Kremer
RL

Royce Lewis

MIN · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Drew Anderson
MC

Max Clark

DET · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Dean Kremer
ZM

Zach McKinstry

DET · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dean Kremer
WJ

Walker Jenkins

MIN · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Drew Anderson
JP

John Peck

DET · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Dean Kremer

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.