AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

LAA vs BOS

Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox

Monday, September 7, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the LAA @ BOS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

LOS ANGELESLAA

0·0

BOSTONBOS

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

LAA Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93

CH83.7

CV78.6

CH84.2

FB94.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

LAA Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · LAA LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

BOS to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

BOS -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL BOS

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

BOS wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYLAA Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

✓ CONFIRMED

BOS Over 4.5 runs

42%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 6-for-20 (.300) with 1 HR vs. this starter, career · hitter-friendly park

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGELAA

LINEUP EDGEBOS

LAA STARTER

Reid Detmers

GOOD

8.1
PROJECTED Ks: 110
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 45% · 22% whiffSlider · 33% · 35% whiffCurveball · 11% · 38% whiff

BOS STARTER

Patrick Sandoval

AVERAGE

4.6
PROJECTED Ks: 103
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Changeup · 24% · 41% whiffSlider · 24% · 29% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 21% · 17% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball, Sinker are getting hit hard lately.

Patrick Sandoval grades avg (Pitching+ 103) vs Reid Detmers grades good (Pitching+ 110)

LAA LINEUP

1Zach Neto (R)hit 70% · HR 24%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
24%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
36%
3+ BASES
28%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
54%
SCORES A RUN
2Mike Trout (R)hit 69% · HR 25%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
25%
HOME RUN
49%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
27%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
3Wade Meckler (L)hit 67% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
4Vaughn Grissom (R)hit 63% · HR 14%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
5Moisés Ballesteros (L)hit 57% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
6Christian Moore (R)hit 56% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
7Josh Lowe (L)hit 55% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
8Kyren Paris (R)hit 57% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
9Tyler Heineman (S)hit 51% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN

BOS LINEUP

1Roman Anthony (L)hit 71% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
48%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
55%
SCORES A RUN
2Mickey Gasper (S)hit 70% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
3Adley Rutschman (S)hit 65% · HR 16%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
4Wilyer Abreu (L)hit 68% · HR 21%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
5Trevor Story (R)hit 62% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
6Caleb Durbin (R)hit 60% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
7Jarren Duran (L)hit 58% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
8Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)hit 63% · HR 10%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
9Eli White (R)hit 60% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

LAA BOS

Game Markets

LAA @ BOS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAA to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

BOS F5

35%

Game Total

Over 8.5

49%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

50%

Run Line

BOS -1.5

29%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

LAA projects to outscore BOS by 0.71 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: LAA 4.78, BOS 4.07
Reid Detmers (LAA) vs Patrick Sandoval (BOS)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Reid Detmers

LAA SP · vs. BOS

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

94%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

86%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

41%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

87%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

57%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 8.1 strikeouts
94% to reach 5+ against BOS

Patrick Sandoval

BOS SP · vs. LAA

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

50%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

12%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
50% to reach 5+ against LAA

Mike Trout

LAA · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Patrick Sandoval

Zach Neto

LAA · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Facing Patrick Sandoval

Wilyer Abreu

BOS · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Facing Reid Detmers

Mickey Gasper

BOS · bats S · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Reid Detmers

Roman Anthony

BOS · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 34% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Reid Detmers

Wade Meckler

LAA · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Facing Patrick Sandoval

Adley Rutschman

BOS · bats S · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Reid Detmers

Vaughn Grissom

LAA · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Patrick Sandoval

Kyren Paris

LAA · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Facing Patrick Sandoval

Jarren Duran

BOS · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Facing Reid Detmers

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

BOS · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Reid Detmers

Eli White

BOS · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Reid Detmers

Trevor Story

BOS · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Reid Detmers

Caleb Durbin

BOS · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Facing Reid Detmers

Moisés Ballesteros

LAA · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 65%.

Batting 5 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Patrick Sandoval

Christian Moore

LAA · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 65%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Patrick Sandoval

Josh Lowe

LAA · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 13% against 14%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Facing Patrick Sandoval

Tyler Heineman

LAA · bats S · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 65%.

Batting 9 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Patrick Sandoval

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.