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AI MODEL READ

PARTIAL LINEUPS

LAA vs BOS

Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox

Monday, September 7, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the LAA @ BOS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

LOS ANGELESLAA
0·0
BOSTONBOS
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

LAA DUGOUTBOS DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Zach Neto (R) vs HP

FB93
CH83.7
CV78.6
CH84.2
FB94.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Zach Neto in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · ZACH NETO

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

BOS to win

60%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

BOS -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL BOS

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

BOS wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYZach Neto at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 82 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

BOS Over 4.5 runs

42%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 6-for-20 (.300) with 1 HR vs. this starter, career · hitter-friendly park

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEBOS

LAA STARTER

Grayson Rodriguez

AVERAGE
4.4
PROJECTED Ks
101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 54% · 17% whiffChangeup · 25% · 36% whiffSlider · 10% · 35% whiff

BOS STARTER

Brayan Bello

AVERAGE
3.9
PROJECTED Ks
99
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 40% · 14% whiffChangeup · 20% · 25% whiffCutter · 16% · 48% whiff

Brayan Bello grades avg (Pitching+ 99) vs Grayson Rodriguez grades avg (Pitching+ 101)

LAA LINEUP

  1. 1Zach Neto (R)hit 69% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    52%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Mike Trout (R)hit 68% · HR 24%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Wade Meckler (L)hit 68% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Vaughn Grissom (R)hit 63% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Moisés Ballesteros (L)hit 58% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Christian Moore (R)hit 54% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Josh Lowe (L)hit 54% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Kyren Paris (R)hit 57% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Tyler Heineman (S)hit 48% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

BOS LINEUP

  1. 1Roman Anthony (L)hit 70% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Mickey Gasper (S)hit 68% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Adley Rutschman (S)hit 64% · HR 15%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Wilyer Abreu (L)hit 67% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Trevor Story (R)hit 61% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Caleb Durbin (R)hit 59% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jarren Duran (L)hit 56% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)hit 61% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Eli White (R)hit 60% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

LAA BOS

Game Markets

LAA @ BOS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BOS to win

60%

1st 5 Innings

BOS F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

53%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

58%

Run Line

BOS -1.5

43%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

51%

THE READ

BOS projects to outscore LAA by 0.82 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: LAA 4.21, BOS 5.03
  • Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) vs Brayan Bello (BOS)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
GR

Grayson Rodriguez

LAA SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

66%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

34%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 46% to reach 5+ against BOS
BB

Brayan Bello

BOS SP · vs. LAA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

20%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
  • 35% to reach 5+ against LAA
MT

Mike Trout

LAA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Brayan Bello
ZN

Zach Neto

LAA · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Brayan Bello
WA

Wilyer Abreu

BOS · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
MG

Mickey Gasper

BOS · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
RA

Roman Anthony

BOS · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
AR

Adley Rutschman

BOS · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
WM

Wade Meckler

LAA · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Brayan Bello
KP

Kyren Paris

LAA · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Brayan Bello
VG

Vaughn Grissom

LAA · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brayan Bello
JD

Jarren Duran

BOS · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
EW

Eli White

BOS · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
IK

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

BOS · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
TS

Trevor Story

BOS · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
CD

Caleb Durbin

BOS · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
MB

Moisés Ballesteros

LAA · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 64%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brayan Bello
JL

Josh Lowe

LAA · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 14%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Brayan Bello
CM

Christian Moore

LAA · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 64%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brayan Bello
TH

Tyler Heineman

LAA · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brayan Bello

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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