HOUSTONHOU
73-71 · +1 AL WEST · L2 · 6-4 L10
@2026-09-07PHI HOME PARK
81-63 · +2 NL EAST · W1 · 7-3 L10
PHILADELPHIAPHI
Weather
77°F · 4mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 53%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

HOU PHI

Game Markets

HOU @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

47%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

30%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore PHI by 0.57 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: HOU 4.56, PHI 3.99
  • Hayden Wesneski (HOU) vs Andrew Painter (PHI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
HW

Hayden Wesneski

HOU SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

65%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

33%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
  • 54% to reach 5+ against PHI
AP

Andrew Painter

PHI SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

72%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

57%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 64% to reach 5+ against HOU

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

PHI vs LHP (team)OPS.713K%22.2%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

HOU vs RHP (team)OPS.728K%21.9%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

PHI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

HOU BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
HOU 0·PHI 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
HOU 0·PHI 0
0 played · 19 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%HOU
HOU 33 · PHI 31 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2025-06-26HOU 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2025-06-26HOU 2-0 · Pitchers duel
2025-06-25HOU 1-0 · Pitchers duel
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
HOU44¢ · 44%
PHI59¢ · 59%
Total 9
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
HOU -1.5 ·
PHI +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.598.598.59last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

HOU OFFENSE

.286L15 team wOBA
-30 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

PHI OFFENSE

.295L15 team wOBA
-21 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT77° · 4mph out to RF
CITIZENS BANK PARK
110HR
HR factor1.10 · +
Runs factor1.02 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
77°F
Wind4 mph out to RF
Humidity39%
Rain0%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

ASTROS 53%

Mean score sim 4.64.0 · projected total 8.6 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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