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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

CLE vs BAL

Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles

Monday, September 7, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CLE @ BAL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CLEVELANDCLE
0·0
BALTIMOREBAL
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

CLE DUGOUTBAL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

CLE Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL84.8
CH88.6
FB93.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

CLE Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · CLE LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

BAL to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

BAL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL BAL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

BAL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCLE Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEBAL

CLE STARTER

Tanner Bibee

AVERAGE
4.0
PROJECTED Ks
101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Cutter · 24% · 31% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 23% · 16% whiffSinker · 21% · 15% whiff

BAL STARTER

Brandon Young

AVERAGE
4.6
PROJECTED Ks
101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 40% · 20% whiffSplit-Finger · 19% · 28% whiffSlider · 16% · 41% whiff

Brandon Young grades avg (Pitching+ 101) vs Tanner Bibee grades avg (Pitching+ 101)

CLE LINEUP

  1. 1Steven Kwan (L)hit 64% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jo Adell (R)hit 64% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3José Ramírez (S)hit 63% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Angel Martínez (S)hit 56% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5David Fry (R)hit 48% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Angel Genao (S)hit 57% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Austin Hedges (R)hit 51% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Petey Halpin (L)hit 52% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Brayan Rocchio (S)hit 51% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

BAL LINEUP

  1. 1Blaze Alexander (R)hit 61% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Pete Alonso (R)hit 65% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jackson Holliday (L)hit 51% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Coby Mayo (R)hit 59% · HR 28%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    28%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Gunnar Henderson (L)hit 55% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)hit 57% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Samuel Basallo (L)hit 50% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Rece Hinds (R)hit 42% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    42%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    18%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Dylan Beavers (L)hit 50% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CLE BAL

Game Markets

CLE @ BAL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

BAL F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

BAL -1.5

35%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.19 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: CLE 4.66, BAL 4.54
  • Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs Brandon Young (BAL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
TB

Tanner Bibee

CLE SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

28%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 36% to reach 5+ against BAL
BY

Brandon Young

BAL SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

93%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

69%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

71%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

59%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 50% to reach 5+ against CLE
CM

Coby Mayo

BAL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tanner Bibee
PA

Pete Alonso

BAL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tanner Bibee
JA

Jo Adell

CLE · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Brandon Young
CE

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

BAL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Tanner Bibee
SK

Steven Kwan

CLE · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Brandon Young
JR

José Ramírez

CLE · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brandon Young
BA

Blaze Alexander

BAL · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Tanner Bibee
SB

Samuel Basallo

BAL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Tanner Bibee
AG

Angel Genao

CLE · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 20% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brandon Young
GH

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Tanner Bibee
AM

Angel Martínez

CLE · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Facing Brandon Young
DF

David Fry

CLE · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 24% against 26%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brandon Young
PH

Petey Halpin

CLE · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 58%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brandon Young
JH

Jackson Holliday

BAL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 58%.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tanner Bibee
AH

Austin Hedges

CLE · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 58%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brandon Young
BR

Brayan Rocchio

CLE · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 58%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brandon Young
DB

Dylan Beavers

BAL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 58%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Tanner Bibee
RH

Rece Hinds

BAL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

44%

Hits

2+ hits

9%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

16%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 44% against 58%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tanner Bibee

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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