AI MODEL READ
CONFIRMED LINEUPSCIN vs LAD
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers
Monday, September 7, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CIN @ LAD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
Héctor Rodríguez (L) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
Héctor Rodríguez in this spot
BATTER PROPS · HÉCTOR RODRÍGUEZ
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
LAD to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
LAD -1.5
TEAM TOTAL LAD
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
LAD wins F5
event 1 / 80 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
CIN STARTER
Chase Burns
GOOD- 6.4
- PROJECTED Ks
- 114
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
LAD STARTER
Emmet Sheehan
GOOD- 7.5
- PROJECTED Ks
- 108
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Emmet Sheehan grades good (Pitching+ 108) vs Chase Burns grades good (Pitching+ 114)
CIN LINEUP
1Héctor Rodríguez (L)hit 55% · HR 14%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
2Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 64% · HR 22%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
3Sal Stewart (R)hit 65% · HR 27%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
27%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
28%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
4JJ Bleday (L)hit 52% · HR 18%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
5Tyler Stephenson (R)hit 54% · HR 14%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
6Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 49% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
7Matt McLain (R)hit 40% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
40%
1+ HIT
9%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
8Carlos Jorge (L)hit 48% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
48%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
9Ke'Bryan Hayeshit 40% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
40%
1+ HIT
8%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
17%
2+ BASES
9%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
15%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
22%
SCORES A RUN
LAD LINEUP
1Shohei Ohtani (L)hit 66% · HR 20%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
2Freddie Freeman (L)hit 67% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
3Tommy Edman (S)hit 61% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
4Max Muncy (L)hit 56% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
5Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 57% · HR 11%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
6Kyle Tucker (L)hit 52% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
7Hunter Feduccia (L)hit 52% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
8Alex Call (R)hit 50% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
9Alex Freeland (S)hit 48% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
48%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CIN @ LAD · full-game reads
Moneyline
CIN to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
LAD F5
41%
Game Total
Over 8.5
37%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
39%
Run Line
LAD -1.5
33%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
35%
Team Total
LAD Over 4.5
34%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 7.54 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: CIN 3.80, LAD 3.74
- Chase Burns (CIN) vs Emmet Sheehan (LAD)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Chase Burns
CIN SP · vs. LAD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
77%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
63%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
47%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
18%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
42%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
13%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
35%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
22%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.4 strikeouts
- 77% to reach 5+ against LAD
Emmet Sheehan
LAD SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
92%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
82%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
67%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
49%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
31%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
82%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
14%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
34%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
21%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 7.5 strikeouts
- 92% to reach 5+ against CIN
Sal Stewart
CIN · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Emmet Sheehan
Freddie Freeman
LAD · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Chase Burns
Elly De La Cruz
CIN · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Emmet Sheehan
Shohei Ohtani
LAD · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Chase Burns
Eugenio Suárez
CIN · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Emmet Sheehan
Max Muncy
LAD · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Chase Burns
JJ Bleday
CIN · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Emmet Sheehan
Tommy Edman
LAD · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Facing Chase Burns
Teoscar Hernández
LAD · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 20% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Chase Burns
Héctor Rodríguez
CIN · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 20% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Emmet Sheehan
Tyler Stephenson
CIN · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Emmet Sheehan
Kyle Tucker
LAD · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chase Burns
Hunter Feduccia
LAD · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Chase Burns
Alex Call
LAD · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 57%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Chase Burns
Carlos Jorge
CIN · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 57%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Emmet Sheehan
Alex Freeland
LAD · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 57%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chase Burns
Matt McLain
CIN · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
42%
Hits
2+ hits
10%
Total Bases
2+ bases
22%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 13%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Emmet Sheehan
Ke'Bryan Hayes
CIN · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
42%
Hits
2+ hits
8%
Total Bases
2+ bases
18%
Total Bases
3+ bases
10%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
15%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 42% against 57%.
- Batting 9
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Emmet Sheehan
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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