AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

CHC vs MIL

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers

Monday, September 7, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CHC @ MIL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CHICAGOCHC

0·0

MILWAUKEEMIL

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

CHC Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL85.2

CH84.7

FB94.3

FB94.4

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

CHC Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · CHC LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

MIL to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

MIL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL MIL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

MIL wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYCHC Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 18 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEMIL

LINEUP EDGEMIL

CHC STARTER

David Peterson

SHAKY

4.2
PROJECTED Ks: 94
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 30% · 16% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 24% · 17% whiffSlider · 22% · 29% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

MIL STARTER

Jacob Misiorowski

ELITE

8.3
PROJECTED Ks: 128
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 63% · 41% whiffCutter · 14% · 20% whiffSlider · 11% · 36% whiff

Jacob Misiorowski grades elite (Pitching+ 128) vs David Peterson grades poor (Pitching+ 94)

CHC LINEUP

1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)hit 69% · HR 28%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
28%
HOME RUN
51%
2+ BASES
38%
3+ BASES
31%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
55%
SCORES A RUN
2Seiya Suzuki (R)hit 67% · HR 23%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
47%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
3Alex Bregman (R)hit 61% · HR 14%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
4Tyrone Taylor (R)hit 63% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
5Nico Hoerner (R)hit 61% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
6Matt Shaw (R)hit 56% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
7Carson Kelly (R)hit 57% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
8BJ Murray Jr. (S)hit 54% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
9Pedro Ramírez (S)hit 53% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN

MIL LINEUP

1Jackson Chourio (R)hit 75% · HR 25%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
75%
1+ HIT
38%
2+ HITS
25%
HOME RUN
53%
2+ BASES
37%
3+ BASES
29%
4+ BASES
43%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
55%
SCORES A RUN
2Brice Turang (L)hit 64% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
3William Contreras (R)hit 68% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
4Andrew Vaughn (R)hit 72% · HR 14%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
35%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
48%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
5Christian Yelich (L)hit 63% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
6Luis Lara (S)hit 65% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
7Cooper Pratt (R)hit 61% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
8Garrett Mitchell (L)hit 62% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
9Joey Ortiz (R)hit 56% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CHC MIL

Game Markets

CHC @ MIL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

75%

1st 5 Innings

MIL F5

67%

Game Total

Over 8.5

41%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

43%

Run Line

MIL -1.5

57%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

21%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

52%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore CHC by 2.37 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: CHC 2.76, MIL 5.13
David Peterson (CHC) vs Jacob Misiorowski (MIL)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

David Peterson

CHC SP · vs. MIL

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

86%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

39%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

57%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
41% to reach 5+ against MIL

Jacob Misiorowski

MIL SP · vs. CHC

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

95%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

89%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

77%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

45%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

62%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

17%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

21%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

11%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 8.3 strikeouts
95% to reach 5+ against CHC

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jacob Misiorowski

Jackson Chourio

MIL · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Facing David Peterson

Seiya Suzuki

CHC · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jacob Misiorowski

Andrew Vaughn

MIL · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing David Peterson

Tyrone Taylor

CHC · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jacob Misiorowski

William Contreras

MIL · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Facing David Peterson

Christian Yelich

MIL · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 5 · bats L
Facing David Peterson

Alex Bregman

CHC · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jacob Misiorowski

Brice Turang

MIL · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

Batting 2 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing David Peterson

Luis Lara

MIL · bats S · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

Batting 6 · bats S
Facing David Peterson

Garrett Mitchell

MIL · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Facing David Peterson

Cooper Pratt

MIL · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing David Peterson

Nico Hoerner

CHC · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Jacob Misiorowski

Carson Kelly

CHC · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 65%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Facing Jacob Misiorowski

Joey Ortiz

MIL · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 65%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Facing David Peterson

Matt Shaw

CHC · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 65%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Facing Jacob Misiorowski

BJ Murray Jr.

CHC · bats S · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 65%.

Batting 8 · bats S
Facing Jacob Misiorowski

Pedro Ramírez

CHC · bats S · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 65%.

Batting 9 · bats S
Facing Jacob Misiorowski

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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