BETFLYAISIGN IN
CHICAGOCHC
81-63 · +2 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 5-5 L10
@MON 2:10 PM ETMIL HOME PARK
88-56 · +1 NL CENTRAL · L2 · 5-5 L10
MILWAUKEEMIL
Weather
79°F · 11mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Matthew Boyd
LHP · CHCPROBABLE
STUFF+95
ERA
4.05
IP
102.1
K/9
7.0
BB/9
2.7
WHIP
1.23
L5 STARTS5.24 ERA · 13.2% K · 9.1% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
50%
27%
14%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSlider
Robert Gasser
LHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
4.57
IP
86.2
K/9
8.5
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.29
L5 STARTS5.15 ERA · 21.1% K · 9.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
28%
26%
23%
16%
SweeperSinker4-Seam FastballCutterChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBrewers 62%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CHC MIL

Game Markets

CHC @ MIL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

MIL F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

55%

Run Line

MIL -1.5

44%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

51%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore CHC by 1.00 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CHC 4.04, MIL 5.04
  • Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs Robert Gasser (MIL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MB

Matthew Boyd

CHC SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

54%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

75%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

63%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 42% to reach 5+ against MIL
RG

Robert Gasser

MIL SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

41%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

9%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 33% to reach 5+ against CHC

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

MATTHEW BOYD SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%18.4%OPS-against.764
vs Left-handedK%19.3%OPS-against.574
MIL vs LHP (team)OPS.701K%21.3%

ROBERT GASSER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%19.9%OPS-against.829
vs Left-handedK%25.6%OPS-against.572
CHC vs LHP (team)OPS.810K%21.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIL BATTERS vs MATTHEW BOYD

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CHC BATTERS vs ROBERT GASSER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CHC 0·MIL 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
CHC 6·MIL 6
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%MIL
CHC 156 · MIL 170 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-03CHC 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2026-09-02MIL 9-5
2026-09-01MIL 9-4
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CHC48¢ · 48%
MIL55¢ · 55%
Total 8.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
CHC -1.5— · —
MIL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CHC OFFENSE

.360L15 team wOBA
+44 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

MIL OFFENSE

.341L15 team wOBA
+25 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
— ENVIRONMENT79° · 11mph out to LF
AMERICAN FAMILY FIELD
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly with roof closed.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
79°F
Wind11 mph out to LF
Humidity43%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO