AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDATL vs PHI
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Monday, September 7, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the ATL @ PHI simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
ATL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
ATL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · ATL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
PHI to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
PHI -1.5
TEAM TOTAL PHI
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
PHI wins F5
event 1 / 17 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
ATL STARTER
Grant Holmes
SHAKY- 3.7
- PROJECTED Ks
- 90
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.
PHI STARTER
Jesús Luzardo
GOOD- 9.3
- PROJECTED Ks
- 111
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Jesús Luzardo grades good (Pitching+ 111) vs Grant Holmes grades poor (Pitching+ 90)
ATL LINEUP
1Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)hit 58% · HR 14%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
2Drake Baldwin (L)hit 61% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
3Ozzie Albies (S)hit 57% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
4Matt Olson (L)hit 56% · HR 18%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
5Lane Thomas (R)hit 47% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
6Michael Harris II (L)hit 61% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
7Mauricio Dubón (R)hit 51% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
20%
SCORES A RUN
8Austin Riley (R)hit 45% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
45%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
17%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
21%
SCORES A RUN
9Ha-Seong Kim (R)hit 38% · HR 5%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
38%
1+ HIT
8%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
16%
2+ BASES
7%
3+ BASES
5%
4+ BASES
13%
RBI
4%
2+ RBIs
20%
SCORES A RUN
PHI LINEUP
1Kyle Schwarber (L)hit 68% · HR 37%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
37%
HOME RUN
51%
2+ BASES
41%
3+ BASES
37%
4+ BASES
44%
RBI
22%
2+ RBIs
59%
SCORES A RUN
2Trea Turner (R)hit 62% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
3Bryce Harper (L)hit 71% · HR 31%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
31%
HOME RUN
53%
2+ BASES
39%
3+ BASES
33%
4+ BASES
45%
RBI
22%
2+ RBIs
54%
SCORES A RUN
4Luis Arraez (L)hit 69% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
5Alec Bohm (R)hit 61% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
6Bryson Stott (L)hit 58% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
7Brandon Marsh (L)hit 62% · HR 15%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
8J.T. Realmuto (R)hit 54% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
9Justin Crawford (L)hit 55% · HR 4%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
4%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
ATL @ PHI · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
70%
1st 5 Innings
PHI F5
64%
Game Total
Over 8.5
42%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
47%
Run Line
PHI -1.5
53%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
25%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
51%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore ATL by 1.88 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: ATL 3.09, PHI 4.97
- Grant Holmes (ATL) vs Jesús Luzardo (PHI)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Grant Holmes
ATL SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
55%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
25%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
60%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
47%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
- 32% to reach 5+ against PHI
Jesús Luzardo
PHI SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
98%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
94%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
87%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
76%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
63%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
98%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
89%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
55%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
40%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 9.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 9.3 strikeouts
- 98% to reach 5+ against ATL
Kyle Schwarber
PHI · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
37%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
39%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 37% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Grant Holmes
Bryce Harper
PHI · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Grant Holmes
Luis Arraez
PHI · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Grant Holmes
Matt Olson
ATL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Brandon Marsh
PHI · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Grant Holmes
Alec Bohm
PHI · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Grant Holmes
Drake Baldwin
ATL · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Michael Harris II
ATL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ bases — 40% against 35% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Trea Turner
PHI · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Grant Holmes
Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Bryson Stott
PHI · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Grant Holmes
Ozzie Albies
ATL · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
J.T. Realmuto
PHI · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Grant Holmes
Justin Crawford
PHI · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Grant Holmes
Mauricio Dubón
ATL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 60%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Lane Thomas
ATL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 60%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Austin Riley
ATL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
47%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
17%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 60%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Ha-Seong Kim
ATL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
39%
Hits
2+ hits
8%
Total Bases
2+ bases
17%
Total Bases
3+ bases
8%
Total Bases
4+ bases
5%
RBIs
1+ RBI
14%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
4%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 39% against 60%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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