MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Grant Holmes · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
ATL @ PHI · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
65%
1st 5 Innings
PHI F5
58%
Game Total
Over 8.5
38%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
43%
Run Line
PHI -1.5
46%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
26%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
44%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore ATL by 1.25 runs across 5,000 trials.
ATL SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
47%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
19%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
52%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
39%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
PHI SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
99%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
96%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
91%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
81%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
68%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
99%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
56%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
40%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 9.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
HR-friendly.
Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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