Not yet announced by the team.
Not yet announced by the team.
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Noah Cameron · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
strikeout machine on the bump
Ketel Marte · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
matchup grade unlocks TB upside
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
lineup spot + form pushes Over
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
extra-base ceiling vs a flyball pitcher
Nolan Arenado · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
platoon split + park combine for TB ceiling
Nolan Arenado · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
barrel% surging, sees enough PAs
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
ARI @ KC · full-game reads
Moneyline
KC to win
53%
1st 5 Innings
KC F5
45%
Game Total
Over 8.5
42%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
47%
Run Line
KC -1.5
36%
Team Total
ARI Over 4.5
39%
Team Total
KC Over 4.5
39%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.10 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
ARI SP · vs. KC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
74%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
37%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
56%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
42%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
KC SP · vs. ARI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
69%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
42%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
55%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
42%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.
KC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
KC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
KC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
KC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
KC · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
KC · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
ARI · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 62%.
ARI · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 62%.
ARI · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.
KC · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 62%.
KC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 62%.
KC · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 62%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits LHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits RHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Big OF — triples up, HR down.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Mean score sim 4.0–4.1 · projected total 8.1 runs · built on locked lineups
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