WASHINGTONWSH
67-77 · +4 NL EAST · L3 · 5-5 L10
@2026-09-06SD HOME PARK
75-68 · +3 NL WEST · W1 · 4-6 L10
SAN DIEGOSD
Weather
91°F · 9mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPadres 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

WSH SD

Game Markets

WSH @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

47%

Run Line

SD -1.5

40%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

36%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

SD projects to outscore WSH by 0.57 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: WSH 3.90, SD 4.47
  • Jake Irvin (WSH) vs Nick Pivetta (SD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JI

Jake Irvin

WSH SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

26%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

38%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 33% to reach 5+ against SD
NP

Nick Pivetta

SD SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

17%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

3%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

29%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

17%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 21% to reach 5+ against WSH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

SD vs LHP (team)OPS.684K%22.4%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

WSH vs RHP (team)OPS.743K%20.7%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

SD BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

WSH BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
WSH 0·SD 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
WSH 2·SD 1
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%WSH
WSH 52 · SD 50 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-05-31WSH 4-2
2026-05-30WSH 9-4
2026-05-29SD 7-5
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
WSH37¢ · 37%
SD67¢ · 67%
Total 8
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
WSH -1.5 ·
SD +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
LINEUP FORM · L15

WSH OFFENSE

.309L15 team wOBA
-7 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

SD OFFENSE

.292L15 team wOBA
-24 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT91° · 9mph out to RF
PETCO PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Marine layer suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
91°F
Wind9 mph out to RF
Humidity47%
Rain1%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

PADRES 58%

Mean score sim 3.94.5 · projected total 8.4 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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