AI MODEL READ
LEAGUE AVGWSH vs LAD
Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, September 6, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the WSH @ LAD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
League Avg (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
League Avg in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
LAD to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
LAD -1.5
TEAM TOTAL LAD
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
LAD wins F5
event 1 / 75 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
Los Angeles D wins
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
WSH STARTER
Andrew Alvarez
AVERAGE- 4.4
- PROJECTED Ks
- 99
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.
LAD STARTER
Justin Wrobleski
GOOD- 3.8
- PROJECTED Ks
- 108
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Justin Wrobleski grades good (Pitching+ 108) vs Andrew Alvarez grades avg (Pitching+ 99)
III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
WSH @ LAD · full-game reads
Moneyline
LAD to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
LAD F5
45%
Game Total
Over 8.5
49%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
52%
Run Line
LAD -1.5
38%
Team Total
WSH Over 4.5
40%
Team Total
LAD Over 4.5
46%
THE READ
LAD projects to outscore WSH by 0.33 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: WSH 4.25, LAD 4.58
- Andrew Alvarez (WSH) vs Justin Wrobleski (LAD)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Andrew Alvarez
WSH SP · vs. LAD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
45%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
2%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
48%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
34%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
- 46% to reach 5+ against LAD
Justin Wrobleski
LAD SP · vs. WSH
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
84%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
54%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
51%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
- 33% to reach 5+ against WSH
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.