AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

WSH vs LAD

Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers

Sunday, September 6, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the WSH @ LAD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

WASHINGTONWSH

0·0

LOS ANGELESLAD

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

WSH Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL84.9

SL83.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

WSH Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · WSH LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

LAD to win

55%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

LAD -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL LAD

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

LAD wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYWSH Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 21 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Los Angeles D wins

45%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGELAD

WSH STARTER

Andrew Alvarez

AVERAGE

4.2
PROJECTED Ks: 99
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Curveball · 31% · 33% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 28% · 13% whiffSlider · 21% · 36% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

LAD STARTER

Justin Wrobleski

GOOD

3.9
PROJECTED Ks: 108
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 50% · 24% whiffSlider · 28% · 21% whiff

Justin Wrobleski grades good (Pitching+ 108) vs Andrew Alvarez grades avg (Pitching+ 99)

WSH LINEUP

Lineup not posted yet — check back closer to first pitch.

LAD LINEUP

1Tommy Edman (S)hit 64% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
2Mookie Betts (R)hit 65% · HR 13%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
3Will Smith (R)hit 63% · HR 14%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
4Freddie Freeman (L)hit 67% · HR 13%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
5Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 65% · HR 17%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
6Kyle Tucker (L)hit 59% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
7Miguel Rojas (R)hit 61% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
8Max Muncy (L)hit 55% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
9Enrique Hernández (R)hit 52% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

WSH LAD

Game Markets

WSH @ LAD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

LAD F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

49%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

LAD -1.5

36%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.81 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

Projected runs: WSH 4.37, LAD 4.44
Andrew Alvarez (WSH) vs Justin Wrobleski (LAD)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Andrew Alvarez

WSH SP · vs. LAD

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

53%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
41% to reach 5+ against LAD

Justin Wrobleski

LAD SP · vs. WSH

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

84%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

57%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

67%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

53%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
34% to reach 5+ against WSH

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Hot streak, thin underlying support
Facing Andrew Alvarez

Freddie Freeman

LAD · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Hot streak, thin underlying support
Facing Andrew Alvarez

Max Muncy

LAD · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 8 · bats L
Facing Andrew Alvarez

Mookie Betts

LAD · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Andrew Alvarez

Will Smith

LAD · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 19% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Andrew Alvarez

Tommy Edman

LAD · bats S · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Andrew Alvarez

Miguel Rojas

LAD · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Andrew Alvarez

Kyle Tucker

LAD · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Andrew Alvarez

Enrique Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 13%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Andrew Alvarez

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.