AI MODEL READ
PRE-LINEUPTOR vs KC
Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals
Sunday, September 6, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TOR @ KC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
Brett Bateman (L) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
Brett Bateman in this spot
BATTER PROPS · BRETT BATEMAN
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
KC to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
KC -1.5
TEAM TOTAL KC
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
KC wins F5
event 1 / 78 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
Kansas City wins
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
TOR STARTER
Spencer Arrighetti
SHAKY- 3.6
- PROJECTED Ks
- 93
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
KC STARTER
Randy Dobnak
SHAKY- 2.8
- PROJECTED Ks
- 89
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.
Randy Dobnak grades poor (Pitching+ 89) vs Spencer Arrighetti grades poor (Pitching+ 93)
TOR LINEUP
1Brett Bateman (L)hit 68% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
2Nathan Lukes (L)hit 68% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
3Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)hit 68% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
4Jesús Sánchez (L)hit 68% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
5Kazuma Okamoto (R)hit 62% · HR 21%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
6Sean Keys (L)hit 55% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
7Josh Smith (L)hit 56% · HR 10%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
8Andrés Giménez (L)hit 58% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
9Brandon Valenzuela (S)hit 55% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
KC LINEUP
1John Rave (L)hit 54% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
2Bobby Witt Jr. (R)hit 67% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
3Vinnie Pasquantino (L)hit 60% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
4Salvador Perez (R)hit 56% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
5Josh Rojas (L)hit 51% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
6Nick Loftin (R)hit 49% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
7Isaac Collins (S)hit 46% · HR 5%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
20%
2+ BASES
9%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
16%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
8Luke Maile (R)hit 44% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
44%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
9Kyle Isbel (L)hit 46% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
20%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TOR @ KC · full-game reads
Moneyline
TOR to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
KC F5
39%
Game Total
Over 8.5
40%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
49%
Run Line
KC -1.5
29%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
41%
Team Total
KC Over 4.5
32%
THE READ
TOR projects to outscore KC by 0.67 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: TOR 4.24, KC 3.57
- Spencer Arrighetti (TOR) vs Randy Dobnak (KC)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Spencer Arrighetti
TOR SP · vs. KC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
13%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
0%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
27%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
16%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
- 29% to reach 5+ against KC
Randy Dobnak
KC SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
61%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
16%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
58%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
44%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
- 15% to reach 5+ against TOR
Kazuma Okamoto
TOR · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Randy Dobnak
Jesús Sánchez
TOR · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Randy Dobnak
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Randy Dobnak
Brett Bateman
TOR · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Randy Dobnak
Bobby Witt Jr.
KC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Spencer Arrighetti
Nathan Lukes
TOR · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Randy Dobnak
Salvador Perez
KC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Spencer Arrighetti
Vinnie Pasquantino
KC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Spencer Arrighetti
John Rave
KC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Spencer Arrighetti
Josh Rojas
KC · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Spencer Arrighetti
Andrés Giménez
TOR · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Randy Dobnak
Brandon Valenzuela
TOR · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Randy Dobnak
Josh Smith
TOR · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Randy Dobnak
Sean Keys
TOR · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Randy Dobnak
Nick Loftin
KC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 60%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Spencer Arrighetti
Kyle Isbel
KC · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
48%
Hits
2+ hits
11%
Total Bases
2+ bases
21%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 60%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Spencer Arrighetti
Isaac Collins
KC · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
48%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
22%
Total Bases
3+ bases
10%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
17%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 60%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Spencer Arrighetti
Luke Maile
KC · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
46%
Hits
2+ hits
10%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 60%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Spencer Arrighetti
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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