AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

TB vs TEX

Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers

Sunday, September 6, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the TB @ TEX simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

TAMPA BAYTB

0·0

TEXASTEX

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

TB Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93.8

CH86

CV78.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

TB Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · TB LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TEX to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TEX -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TEX

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TEX wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYTB Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN

LINEUP EDGEEVEN

TB STARTER

Ian Seymour

AVERAGE

8.2
PROJECTED Ks: 102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Changeup · 30% · 39% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 26% whiffSweeper · 21% · 31% whiff

TEX STARTER

MacKenzie Gore

AVERAGE

4.7
PROJECTED Ks: 99
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 47% · 23% whiffCurveball · 19% · 31% whiffChangeup · 13% · 40% whiff

MacKenzie Gore grades avg (Pitching+ 99) vs Ian Seymour grades avg (Pitching+ 102)

TB LINEUP

1Yandy Díaz (R)hit 68% · HR 16%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
2Jonathan Aranda (L)hit 66% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
3Junior Caminero (R)hit 66% · HR 23%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
4Ryan Vilade (R)hit 60% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
5Chandler Simpson (L)hit 64% · HR 5%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
6Jonny DeLuca (R)hit 54% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
7Jorge Mateo (R)hit 49% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
8Victor Mesa Jr. (L)hit 52% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
9Nick Fortes (R)hit 53% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN

TEX LINEUP

1Ezequiel Duran (R)hit 59% · HR 13%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
2Corey Seager (L)hit 65% · HR 19%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
3Justin Foscue (R)hit 61% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
4Brandon Nimmo (L)hit 61% · HR 13%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
5Wyatt Langford (R)hit 55% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
6Jake Burger (R)hit 58% · HR 21%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
7Logan O'Hoppe (R)hit 50% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
23%
SCORES A RUN
8Elias Díaz (R)hit 47% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
9Cody Freeman (R)hit 50% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

TB TEX

Game Markets

TB @ TEX · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

50%

1st 5 Innings

TEX F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

40%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

42%

Run Line

TEX -1.5

31%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

39%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

35%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 7.85 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

Projected runs: TB 4.04, TEX 3.80
Ian Seymour (TB) vs MacKenzie Gore (TEX)
Run on confirmed lineups

Ian Seymour

TB SP · vs. TEX

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

94%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

86%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

75%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

60%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

44%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

83%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 8.2 strikeouts
94% to reach 5+ against TEX

MacKenzie Gore

TEX SP · vs. TB

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

49%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

19%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

41%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.

Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
51% to reach 5+ against TB

Junior Caminero

TB · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Jake Burger

TEX · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Ian Seymour

Justin Foscue

TEX · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Ian Seymour

Yandy Díaz

TB · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Corey Seager

TEX · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 23% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Ian Seymour

Ryan Vilade

TB · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Jonathan Aranda

TB · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Chandler Simpson

TB · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats L
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Ian Seymour

Ezequiel Duran

TEX · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

Batting 1 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Ian Seymour

Victor Mesa Jr.

TB · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Wyatt Langford

TEX · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Ian Seymour

Jonny DeLuca

TB · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 60%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Nick Fortes

TB · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 60%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Elias Díaz

TEX · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 13%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Ian Seymour

Cody Freeman

TEX · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 60%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Ian Seymour

Logan O'Hoppe

TEX · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 60%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Ian Seymour

Jorge Mateo

TB · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 60%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing MacKenzie Gore

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.