AI MODEL READ

LEAGUE AVG

TB vs TEX

Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers

Sunday, September 6, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the TB @ TEX simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

TAMPA BAYTB

0·0

TEXASTEX

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

Yandy Díaz (R) vs HP

FB93.8

CH86

CV78.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Yandy Díaz in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · YANDY DÍAZ

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TEX to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TEX -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TEX

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TEX wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYYandy Díaz at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 74 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN

LINEUP EDGEEVEN

TB STARTER

Ian Seymour

AVERAGE

7.7
PROJECTED Ks: 102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Changeup · 30% · 39% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 26% whiffSweeper · 21% · 31% whiff

TEX STARTER

MacKenzie Gore

AVERAGE

5.0
PROJECTED Ks: 99
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 47% · 23% whiffCurveball · 19% · 31% whiffChangeup · 13% · 40% whiff

MacKenzie Gore grades avg (Pitching+ 99) vs Ian Seymour grades avg (Pitching+ 102)

TB LINEUP

1Yandy Díaz (R)hit 68% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
2Jonathan Aranda (L)hit 62% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
3Junior Caminero (R)hit 66% · HR 22%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
4Ryan Vilade (R)hit 60% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
5Chandler Simpson (L)hit 65% · HR 5%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
6Jonny DeLuca (R)hit 54% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
7Jorge Mateo (R)hit 48% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
48%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
8Victor Mesa Jr. (L)hit 51% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
9Nick Fortes (R)hit 52% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN

TEX LINEUP

1Ezequiel Duran (R)hit 60% · HR 13%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
2Corey Seager (L)hit 64% · HR 19%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
3Justin Foscue (R)hit 59% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
4Brandon Nimmo (L)hit 61% · HR 12%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
5Wyatt Langford (R)hit 54% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
6Jake Burger (R)hit 56% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
7Logan O'Hoppe (R)hit 51% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
8Elias Díaz (R)hit 46% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
9Cody Freeman (R)hit 50% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

TB TEX

Game Markets

TB @ TEX · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

50%

1st 5 Innings

TEX F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

38%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

41%

Run Line

TEX -1.5

32%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

37%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

34%

THE READ

TB projects to outscore TEX by 0.29 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: TB 4.01, TEX 3.72
Ian Seymour (TB) vs MacKenzie Gore (TEX)
Run on confirmed lineups

Ian Seymour

TB SP · vs. TEX

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

93%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

35%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

78%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 7.7 strikeouts
93% to reach 5+ against TEX

MacKenzie Gore

TEX SP · vs. TB

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

57%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

56%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

14%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

42%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
57% to reach 5+ against TB

Junior Caminero

TB · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Yandy Díaz

TB · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Corey Seager

TEX · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Facing Ian Seymour

Jake Burger

TEX · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats R
Facing Ian Seymour

Justin Foscue

TEX · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Ian Seymour

Ryan Vilade

TB · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Chandler Simpson

TB · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats L
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Jonathan Aranda

TB · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Ian Seymour

Ezequiel Duran

TEX · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 1 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Ian Seymour

Wyatt Langford

TEX · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Ian Seymour

Victor Mesa Jr.

TB · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 53%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Jonny DeLuca

TB · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 25% against 27%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Nick Fortes

TB · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 60%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Logan O'Hoppe

TEX · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 60%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Ian Seymour

Cody Freeman

TEX · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 60%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Facing Ian Seymour

Elias Díaz

TEX · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 13%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Ian Seymour

Jorge Mateo

TB · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 23% against 27%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing MacKenzie Gore

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.