St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies · AI Model Read · Sunday, September 6, 2026

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ST. LOUISSTL

71-72 · +3 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 5-5 L10

@SUN 3:10 PM ETCOL HOME PARK

55-87 · +5 NL WEST · W1 · 4-6 L10

COLORADOCOL

Weather

88°F · 6mph out to LF

Home plate ump

Emil Jimenez K-0.3%

Injuries

No injury concerns

Series so far

3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026

— PITCHING MATCHUP

Kyle Leahy

RHP · STLPROBABLE

STUFF+90

ERA

3.13

129.1

K/9

8.2

BB/9

2.6

WHIP

1.31

L5 STARTS1.64 ERA · 30.3% K · 3.4% BB▲ TRENDING

PITCH MIX · SEASON

28%

16%

13%

4-Seam FastballCurveballSliderSinkerChangeupSweeper

Tanner Gordon

RHP · COLPROBABLE

STUFF+86

ERA

5.18

88.2

K/9

7.3

BB/9

1.6

WHIP

1.40

L5 STARTS3.35 ERA · 16.2% K · 3% BB▲ TRENDING

PITCH MIX · SEASON

37%

27%

21%

4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupCurveball

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS3 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Kyle Leahy · Over 2.5 3+ Ks

high-K profile + cooperative opp

-128 FanDuel56% book81% +25pp

Kyle Leahy · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

strikeout machine on the bump

+134 FanDuel43% book68% +25pp

Tanner Gordon · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

strikeout machine on the bump

-165 Fanatics62% book86% +24pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETCardinals 61%

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

STL COL

Game Markets

STL @ COL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

STL to win

61%

1st 5 Innings

COL F5

37%

Game Total

Over 8.5

70%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

67%

Run Line

COL -1.5

26%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

66%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

51%

THE READ

STL projects to outscore COL by 1.51 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: STL 6.50, COL 4.99
Kyle Leahy (STL) vs Tanner Gordon (COL)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Kyle Leahy

STL SP · vs. COL

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

10%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 2.7 strikeouts
13% to reach 5+ against COL

Tanner Gordon

COL SP · vs. STL

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

41%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

76%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

66%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
31% to reach 5+ against STL

Mickey Moniak

COL · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Kyle Leahy

TJ Rumfield

COL · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Kyle Leahy

Jake McCarthy

COL · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Kyle Leahy

Troy Johnston

COL · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Facing Kyle Leahy

Cole Carrigg

COL · bats S · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Kyle Leahy

Vimael Machín

COL · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 8 · bats L
Facing Kyle Leahy

Adael Amador

COL · bats S · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 6 · bats S
Facing Kyle Leahy

Brett Sullivan

COL · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 67%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Kyle Leahy

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 67%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Facing Kyle Leahy

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

KYLE LEAHY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.7%OPS-against.595

vs Left-handedK%19.8%OPS-against.847

COL vs RHP (team)OPS.757K%21.7%

TANNER GORDON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.6%OPS-against.835

vs Left-handedK%18.9%OPS-against.884

STL vs RHP (team)OPS.696K%21.6%

— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

COL BATTERS vs KYLE LEAHY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

STL BATTERS vs TANNER GORDON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY

THIS SERIES

STL 1·COL 1

3-game set · gm 3 of 3

2026 SEASON

STL 3·COL 2

5 played · 14 remaining

ALL-TIME (2010-)

62%STL

STL 64 · COL 39 · since 2010

NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS

2026-09-06COL 10-7 · Slugfest

2026-09-05STL 7-6 · One-run game

2026-08-09STL 7-4

— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Moneyline

STL57¢ · 57%

COL47¢ · 47%

Total 11

Over53¢ · 53%

Under51¢ · 51%

Run line ±1.5

STL -1.5— · —

COL +1.5— · —

First 5 innings

O 4.5— · —

U 4.5— · —

TOTAL MOVEMENT17.5→11→11.5→11last 12h

— LINEUP FORM · L15

STL OFFENSE

.314L15 team wOBA

-3 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

COL OFFENSE

.320L15 team wOBA

+4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

— ENVIRONMENT88° · 6mph out to LF

COORS FIELD

112HR

HR factor1.12 · +

Runs factor1.18 · +

Doubles factor1.18 · +

Altitude — extreme run environment.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

88°F

Wind6 mph out to LF

Humidity30%

Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

JIMENEZ

Called K rate-0.3% vs avg

Runs per 9—

Games this yr102

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean

Injury report unavailable.

MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

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