AI MODEL READ
PARTIAL LINEUPSSF vs NYM
San Francisco Giants at New York Mets
Sunday, September 6, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the SF @ NYM simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
Drew Gilbert (L) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
Drew Gilbert in this spot
BATTER PROPS · DREW GILBERT
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
NYM to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
NYM -1.5
TEAM TOTAL NYM
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
NYM wins F5
event 1 / 77 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
New York M wins
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
SF STARTER
Cesar Perdomo
- 3.2
- PROJECTED Ks
- —
- PITCHING+
NYM STARTER
Christian Scott
AVERAGE- 5.5
- PROJECTED Ks
- 103
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Christian Scott grades avg (Pitching+ 103) vs Cesar Perdomo projects 3.2 Ks
SF LINEUP
Lineup not posted yet — check back closer to first pitch.
NYM LINEUP
1Francisco Lindor (S)hit 63% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
2Juan Sotohit 66% · HR 22%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
3Bo Bichette (R)hit 63% · HR 9%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
4Carson Benge (L)hit 62% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
5Mark Vientoshit 60% · HR 19%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
6Marcus Semien (R)hit 51% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
7Nick Morabitohit 51% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
8A.J. Ewing (L)hit 52% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
9Luis Torrens (R)hit 52% · HR 10%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
Every bat, graded by the sim.
Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
SF @ NYM · full-game reads
Moneyline
SF to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
NYM F5
44%
Game Total
Over 8.5
42%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
46%
Run Line
NYM -1.5
34%
Team Total
SF Over 4.5
38%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
37%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.15 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: SF 4.13, NYM 4.02
- Cesar Perdomo (SF) vs Christian Scott (NYM)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Cesar Perdomo
SF SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
10%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
29%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
18%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
- 21% to reach 5+ against NYM
Christian Scott
NYM SP · vs. SF
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
70%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
51%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
8%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
46%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
8%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
39%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
25%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.6 strikeouts
- 70% to reach 5+ against SF
Rafael Devers
SF · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Christian Scott
Juan Soto
NYM · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Cesar Perdomo
Mark Vientos
NYM · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Cesar Perdomo
Bryce Eldridge
SF · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Christian Scott
Francisco Lindor
NYM · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Facing Cesar Perdomo
Jung Hoo Lee
SF · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Christian Scott
Bo Bichette
NYM · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Cesar Perdomo
Carson Benge
NYM · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Cesar Perdomo
Drew Gilbert
SF · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Christian Scott
Grant McCray
SF · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Christian Scott
Osleivis Basabe
SF · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Christian Scott
Jonah Cox
SF · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Christian Scott
Luis Torrens
NYM · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 26% against 28%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Cesar Perdomo
A.J. Ewing
NYM · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 61%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Cesar Perdomo
Drew Cavanaugh
SF · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Christian Scott
Marcus Semien
NYM · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Cesar Perdomo
Nick Morabito
NYM · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Cesar Perdomo
Christian Koss
SF · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 61%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Christian Scott
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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