AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSF vs NYM
San Francisco Giants at New York Mets
Sunday, September 6, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the SF @ NYM simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
SF Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
SF Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SF LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
NYM to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
NYM -1.5
TEAM TOTAL NYM
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
NYM wins F5
event 1 / 23 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDNew York M wins
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
SF STARTER
Cesar Perdomo
- 4.3
- PROJECTED Ks
- —
- PITCHING+
NYM STARTER
Christian Scott
AVERAGE- 5.8
- PROJECTED Ks
- 103
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Christian Scott grades avg (Pitching+ 103) vs Cesar Perdomo projects 4.3 Ks
SF LINEUP
1Drew Gilbert (L)hit 60% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
2Rafael Devers (L)hit 68% · HR 28%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
28%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
36%
3+ BASES
30%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
3Bryce Eldridge (L)hit 62% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
4Jonah Cox (R)hit 54% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
5Jung Hoo Lee (L)hit 63% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
6Osleivis Basabe (R)hit 53% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
7Grant McCray (L)hit 51% · HR 13%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
8Drew Cavanaugh (L)hit 52% · HR 5%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
9Christian Koss (R)hit 48% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
48%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
NYM LINEUP
1Francisco Lindor (S)hit 64% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
2Juan Soto (L)hit 69% · HR 19%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
3Bo Bichette (R)hit 65% · HR 12%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
4Carson Benge (L)hit 65% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
5Mark Vientos (R)hit 62% · HR 20%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
6Marcus Semien (R)hit 55% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
7Nick Morabito (R)hit 56% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
8A.J. Ewing (L)hit 54% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
9Luis Torrens (R)hit 55% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
SF @ NYM · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYM to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
NYM F5
46%
Game Total
Over 8.5
44%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
49%
Run Line
NYM -1.5
37%
Team Total
SF Over 4.5
38%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
40%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.30 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: SF 4.05, NYM 4.26
- Cesar Perdomo (SF) vs Christian Scott (NYM)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Cesar Perdomo
SF SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
44%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
77%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
39%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
62%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
48%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
- 44% to reach 5+ against NYM
Christian Scott
NYM SP · vs. SF
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
72%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
10%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
49%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
10%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
39%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
24%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
- 72% to reach 5+ against SF
Rafael Devers
SF · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Christian Scott
Mark Vientos
NYM · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Cesar Perdomo
Juan Soto
NYM · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Cesar Perdomo
Francisco Lindor
NYM · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Facing Cesar Perdomo
Bryce Eldridge
SF · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Christian Scott
Bo Bichette
NYM · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Cesar Perdomo
Carson Benge
NYM · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Cesar Perdomo
Jung Hoo Lee
SF · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Christian Scott
Drew Gilbert
SF · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Christian Scott
Grant McCray
SF · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Christian Scott
Luis Torrens
NYM · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Cesar Perdomo
Nick Morabito
NYM · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 61%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Cesar Perdomo
Marcus Semien
NYM · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 61%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Cesar Perdomo
Jonah Cox
SF · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 2+ RBIs at 10% against 11%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Christian Scott
Osleivis Basabe
SF · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 26% against 28%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Christian Scott
A.J. Ewing
NYM · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 61%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Cesar Perdomo
Drew Cavanaugh
SF · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 61%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Christian Scott
Christian Koss
SF · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 61%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Christian Scott
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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