BETFLYAISIGN IN
NEW YORKNYY
81-61 · +2 AL EAST · W1 · 6-4 L10
@SUN 4:10 PM ETSD HOME PARK
74-68 · +3 NL WEST · L1 · 3-7 L10
SAN DIEGOSD
Weather
88°F · 12mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Gerrit Cole
RHP · NYYPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
3.29
IP
104.0
K/9
9.5
BB/9
1.9
WHIP
1.11
L5 STARTS2.99 ERA · 25.8% K · 4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
44%
19%
16%
14%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupCurveballSinker
Michael King
RHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+95
ERA
3.11
IP
162.0
K/9
7.8
BB/9
3.5
WHIP
1.17
L5 STARTS1.73 ERA · 21.8% K · 7.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
27%
19%
19%
SinkerChangeupSweeper4-Seam FastballSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETYankees 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYY SD

Game Markets

NYY @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

37%

Game Total

Over 8.5

39%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

42%

Run Line

SD -1.5

27%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

31%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore SD by 0.77 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYY 4.30, SD 3.53
  • Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs Michael King (SD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
GC

Gerrit Cole

NYY SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

93%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

35%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 58% to reach 5+ against SD
MK

Michael King

SD SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

83%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 62% to reach 5+ against NYY

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

GERRIT COLE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.0%OPS-against.708
vs Left-handedK%28.3%OPS-against.639
SD vs RHP (team)OPS.704K%21.7%

MICHAEL KING SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.7%OPS-against.664
vs Left-handedK%20.4%OPS-against.638
NYY vs RHP (team)OPS.713K%24.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SD BATTERS vs GERRIT COLE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYY BATTERS vs MICHAEL KING

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYY 1·SD 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYY 1·SD 1
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%NYY
NYY 11 · SD 9 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-05NYY 5-1
2026-09-05SD 3-2 · One-run game
2025-05-07NYY 4-3 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYY52¢ · 52%
SD51¢ · 51%
Total 7
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
NYY -1.5— · —
SD +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYY OFFENSE

.312L15 team wOBA
-5 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

SD OFFENSE

.286L15 team wOBA
-30 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT88° · 12mph in from CF
PETCO PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Marine layer suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
88°F
Wind12 mph in from CF
Humidity55%
Rain1%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO