NEW YORKNYM
65-78 · +5 NL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
@2026-09-06MIA HOME PARK
72-72 · +3 NL EAST · W1 · 4-6 L10
MIAMIMIA
Weather
81°F · 4mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMarlins 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYM MIA

Game Markets

NYM @ MIA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIA to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

MIA F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

47%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

MIA -1.5

40%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

MIA projects to outscore NYM by 0.48 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYM 4.09, MIA 4.57
  • Jonah Tong (NYM) vs Eury Pérez (MIA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JT

Jonah Tong

NYM SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

48%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
  • 15% to reach 5+ against MIA
EP

Eury Pérez

MIA SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

41%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

34%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

22%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 63% to reach 5+ against NYM

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

MIA vs LHP (team)OPS.688K%23.3%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

NYM vs RHP (team)OPS.697K%22.3%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

MIA BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYM BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYM 0·MIA 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYM 5·MIA 11
16 played · 3 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
58%NYM
NYM 219 · MIA 156 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-02MIA 2-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-08-01MIA 6-2
2026-07-31MIA 5-2
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYM50¢ · 50%
MIA53¢ · 53%
Total 8
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
NYM -1.5 ·
MIA +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.587.58last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

NYM OFFENSE

.302L15 team wOBA
-14 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

MIA OFFENSE

.312L15 team wOBA
-4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
ENVIRONMENT81° · 4mph out to LF
LOANDEPOT PARK
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Cavernous OF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
81°F
Wind4 mph out to LF
Humidity84%
Rain23%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

MARLINS 56%

Mean score sim 4.14.6 · projected total 8.7 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read