MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Bailey Ober · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Miguel Vargas · Over 0.5 1+ Runs
on-base rate + supporting cast = runs
Luke Keaschall · Over 0.5 1+ Runs
OBP edge + ballpark + lineup
Tristan Peters · Over 0.5 1+ Hits
hot stretch + soft matchup
Bailey Ober · Over 15.5 16+ Outs
elite efficiency, gets the bulk innings
Bailey Ober · Over 14.5 15+ Outs
long-leash spot vs softer opp
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
MIN @ CWS · full-game reads
Moneyline
CWS to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
CWS F5
52%
Game Total
Over 8.5
51%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
55%
Run Line
CWS -1.5
39%
Team Total
MIN Over 4.5
42%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
47%
THE READ
CWS projects to outscore MIN by 0.33 runs across 5,000 trials.
MIN SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
83%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
30%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
67%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
52%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
CWS SP · vs. MIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
94%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
71%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
71%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
57%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.
CWS · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CWS · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CWS · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIN · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIN · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIN · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIN · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 3+ bases — 26% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CWS · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CWS · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 3+ bases — 26% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CWS · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIN · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
MIN · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
MIN · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
MIN · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
CWS · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 65%.
CWS · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 65%.
CWS · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 65%.
MIN · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 65%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).
Slight HR boost.
Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 4.4–4.7 · projected total 9.1 runs · built on locked lineups
That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.
Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read
BetFly publishes sports predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only — not financial, investment, or wagering advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Must be 21+. Not available in all states.