AI MODEL READ

CONFIRMED LINEUPS

MIL vs CIN

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds

Sunday, September 6, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIL @ CIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MILWAUKEEMIL

0·0

CINCINNATICIN

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

Sal Frelick (L) vs HP

FB92.7

FB92.9

FB92.6

FB92.9

CV78.2

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Sal Frelick in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · SAL FRELICK

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CIN to win

37%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CIN wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYSal Frelick at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 84 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEMIL

LINEUP EDGEMIL

MIL STARTER

Kyle Harrison

ELITE

6.6
PROJECTED Ks: 116
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 58% · 29% whiffSlurve · 31% · 30% whiff

CIN STARTER

Brady Singer

SHAKY

4.1
PROJECTED Ks: 89
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 50% · 16% whiffSlider · 26% · 32% whiffSweeper · 15% · 41% whiff

Brady Singer grades poor (Pitching+ 89) vs Kyle Harrison grades elite (Pitching+ 116)

MIL LINEUP

1Sal Frelickhit 67% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
2Christian Yelich (L)hit 68% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
51%
SCORES A RUN
3Jackson Chourio (R)hit 75% · HR 27%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
75%
1+ HIT
38%
2+ HITS
27%
HOME RUN
54%
2+ BASES
39%
3+ BASES
31%
4+ BASES
45%
RBI
22%
2+ RBIs
57%
SCORES A RUN
4Jake Bauers (L)hit 73% · HR 31%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
73%
1+ HIT
36%
2+ HITS
31%
HOME RUN
55%
2+ BASES
41%
3+ BASES
34%
4+ BASES
48%
RBI
25%
2+ RBIs
58%
SCORES A RUN
5Garrett Mitchell (L)hit 72% · HR 18%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
51%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
43%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
6Brice Turang (L)hit 67% · HR 17%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
7Cooper Pratthit 65% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
8Bo Naylorhit 53% · HR 13%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
9David Hamilton (L)hit 58% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN

CIN LINEUP

1Dane Myers (R)hit 58% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
2Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 67% · HR 23%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
47%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
48%
SCORES A RUN
3Sal Stewart (R)hit 65% · HR 23%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
4Tyler Stephenson (R)hit 55% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
5Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 55% · HR 21%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
6JJ Bleday (L)hit 53% · HR 16%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
7Matt McLain (R)hit 48% · HR 13%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
48%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
8Juan Britohit 50% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
9Héctor Rodríguez (L)hit 48% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
48%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIL CIN

Game Markets

MIL @ CIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

63%

1st 5 Innings

CIN F5

29%

Game Total

Over 8.5

60%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

60%

Run Line

CIN -1.5

23%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

60%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore CIN by 1.81 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: MIL 5.96, CIN 4.14
Kyle Harrison (MIL) vs Brady Singer (CIN)
Run on confirmed lineups

Kyle Harrison

MIL SP · vs. CIN

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

85%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

70%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

16%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

48%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

36%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

23%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 6.6 strikeouts
85% to reach 5+ against CIN

Brady Singer

CIN SP · vs. MIL

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

68%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

14%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

68%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

54%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
41% to reach 5+ against MIL

Jake Bauers

MIL · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

32%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

44%

Total Bases

4+ bases

37%

RBIs

1+ RBI

51%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

28%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 28% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Brady Singer

Jackson Chourio

MIL · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

41%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

42%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 23% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Brady Singer

Garrett Mitchell

MIL · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats L
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Brady Singer

Brice Turang

MIL · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Brady Singer

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · bats S · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Kyle Harrison

Sal Stewart

CIN · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Kyle Harrison

Eugenio Suárez

CIN · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Kyle Harrison

Christian Yelich

MIL · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Facing Brady Singer

Sal Frelick

MIL · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Brady Singer

Cooper Pratt

MIL · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 7 · bats R
Facing Brady Singer

JJ Bleday

CIN · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Kyle Harrison

Bo Naylor

MIL · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Brady Singer

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

Batting 4 · bats R
Facing Kyle Harrison

David Hamilton

MIL · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Facing Brady Singer

Dane Myers

CIN · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 64%.

Batting 1 · bats R
Facing Kyle Harrison

Juan Brito

CIN · bats S · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 64%.

Batting 8 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Kyle Harrison

Matt McLain

CIN · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 13% against 16%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Kyle Harrison

Héctor Rodríguez

CIN · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 64%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Facing Kyle Harrison

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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