AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

MIL vs CIN

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds

Sunday, September 6, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIL @ CIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MILWAUKEEMIL

0·0

CINCINNATICIN

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

MIL Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB92.7

FB92.9

FB92.6

FB92.9

FB94

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

MIL Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · MIL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CIN to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CIN wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYMIL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEMIL

LINEUP EDGEMIL

MIL STARTER

Kyle Harrison

ELITE

5.8
PROJECTED Ks: 116
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 58% · 29% whiffSlurve · 31% · 30% whiff

CIN STARTER

Brady Singer

SHAKY

3.9
PROJECTED Ks: 89
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 50% · 16% whiffSlider · 26% · 32% whiffSweeper · 15% · 41% whiff

Brady Singer grades poor (Pitching+ 89) vs Kyle Harrison grades elite (Pitching+ 116)

MIL LINEUP

1Sal Frelick (L)hit 66% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
2Christian Yelich (L)hit 68% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
52%
SCORES A RUN
3Jackson Chourio (R)hit 75% · HR 27%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
75%
1+ HIT
38%
2+ HITS
27%
HOME RUN
54%
2+ BASES
39%
3+ BASES
31%
4+ BASES
46%
RBI
22%
2+ RBIs
57%
SCORES A RUN
4Jake Bauers (L)hit 73% · HR 31%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
73%
1+ HIT
35%
2+ HITS
31%
HOME RUN
54%
2+ BASES
40%
3+ BASES
34%
4+ BASES
49%
RBI
26%
2+ RBIs
58%
SCORES A RUN
5Garrett Mitchell (L)hit 72% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
35%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
51%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
42%
RBI
21%
2+ RBIs
51%
SCORES A RUN
6Brice Turang (L)hit 67% · HR 17%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
7Cooper Pratt (R)hit 64% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
8Bo Naylor (L)hit 52% · HR 14%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
9David Hamilton (L)hit 58% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN

CIN LINEUP

1Dane Myers (R)hit 60% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
2Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 69% · HR 24%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
24%
HOME RUN
48%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
27%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
3Sal Stewart (R)hit 65% · HR 22%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
4Tyler Stephenson (R)hit 59% · HR 16%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
5Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 55% · HR 22%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
6JJ Bleday (L)hit 53% · HR 16%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
7Matt McLain (R)hit 46% · HR 13%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
8Juan Brito (S)hit 51% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
9Héctor Rodríguez (L)hit 49% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIL CIN

Game Markets

MIL @ CIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

CIN F5

31%

Game Total

Over 8.5

62%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

62%

Run Line

CIN -1.5

24%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

61%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore CIN by 1.59 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: MIL 5.92, CIN 4.33
Kyle Harrison (MIL) vs Brady Singer (CIN)
Run on confirmed lineups

Kyle Harrison

MIL SP · vs. CIN

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

13%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

29%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

18%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.

Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
74% to reach 5+ against CIN

Brady Singer

CIN SP · vs. MIL

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

52%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
35% to reach 5+ against MIL

Jake Bauers

MIL · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

31%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

36%

RBIs

1+ RBI

50%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

27%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 27% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Brady Singer

Jackson Chourio

MIL · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Facing Brady Singer

Garrett Mitchell

MIL · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats L
Facing Brady Singer

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · bats S · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Kyle Harrison

Sal Stewart

CIN · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Kyle Harrison

Eugenio Suárez

CIN · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Kyle Harrison

Brice Turang

MIL · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Brady Singer

Christian Yelich

MIL · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Facing Brady Singer

Sal Frelick

MIL · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Brady Singer

Cooper Pratt

MIL · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 37% against 33% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Brady Singer

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

Batting 4 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Kyle Harrison

JJ Bleday

CIN · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Kyle Harrison

Bo Naylor

MIL · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Brady Singer

Dane Myers

CIN · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 1 · bats R
Facing Kyle Harrison

David Hamilton

MIL · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Facing Brady Singer

Juan Brito

CIN · bats S · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 64%.

Batting 8 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Kyle Harrison

Héctor Rodríguez

CIN · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 64%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Kyle Harrison

Matt McLain

CIN · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 13% against 16%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Kyle Harrison

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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