MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Oneil Cruz · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
hot bat in run-producing spot
Esmerlyn Valdez · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
cleanup spot + hot bat = RBI machine
Paul Skenes · Under 7.5 <8 Pitcher Ks
opp puts the ball in play, holds Ks down
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
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LAA @ PIT · full-game reads
Moneyline
PIT to win
65%
1st 5 Innings
PIT F5
54%
Game Total
Over 8.5
38%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
39%
Run Line
PIT -1.5
47%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
27%
Team Total
PIT Over 4.5
43%
THE READ
PIT projects to outscore LAA by 1.28 runs across 5,000 trials.
LAA SP · vs. PIT
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
80%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
48%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
20%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
85%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
56%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
61%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
46%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
PIT SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
87%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
72%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
19%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
73%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
12%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
33%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
20%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
PIT · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PIT · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PIT · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
LAA · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PIT · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
LAA · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
LAA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PIT · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PIT · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PIT · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 29% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
LAA · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
LAA · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 53%.
PIT · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.
LAA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 59%.
LAA · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 59%.
LAA · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 59%.
PIT · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
45%
Hits
2+ hits
10%
Total Bases
2+ bases
21%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 9% against 11%.
LAA · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
47%
Hits
2+ hits
11%
Total Bases
2+ bases
20%
Total Bases
3+ bases
9%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
17%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 59%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAA hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.
Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 3.2–4.5 · projected total 7.7 runs · built on locked lineups
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