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DETROITDET
65-77 · +4 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 3-7 L10
@SUN 1:40 PM ETCLE HOME PARK
72-71 · +2 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 5-5 L10
CLEVELANDCLE
Weather
75°F · 9mph in from CF
Home plate ump
Jacob Metz K-0.5%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 1-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jackson Jobe
RHP · DETPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
4.63
IP
23.1
K/9
7.3
BB/9
3.9
WHIP
1.46
L5 STARTS4.82 ERA · 18.3% K · 9.6% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Gavin Williams
RHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
3.81
IP
163.0
K/9
12.0
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.09
L5 STARTS5.58 ERA · 36.8% K · 10.4% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
23%
22%
20%
10%
SweeperCurveball4-Seam FastballSinkerCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Jackson Jobe · Under 15.5 <16 Outs

quick-hook risk: walks + traffic shorten the start

-135 DraftKings57% book84% +26pp

Dillon Dingler · Over 0.5 1+ HR

stuff doesn't play vs his pull side

+850 Caesars11% book17% +6pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 54%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

DET CLE

Game Markets

DET @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

32%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

38%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

35%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

29%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

32%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 7.04 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: DET 3.43, CLE 3.61
  • Jackson Jobe (DET) vs Gavin Williams (CLE)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
JJ

Jackson Jobe

DET SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

30%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

42%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.6 strikeouts
  • 10% to reach 5+ against CLE
GW

Gavin Williams

CLE SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

96%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

89%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

49%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

85%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

44%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

39%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.5 strikeouts
  • 96% to reach 5+ against DET
DD

Dillon Dingler

DET · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Gavin Williams
RG

Riley Greene

DET · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Gavin Williams
JA

Jo Adell

CLE · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
SK

Steven Kwan

CLE · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
NL

Nathaniel Lowe

CLE · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
AM

Angel Martínez

CLE · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
KM

Kevin McGonigle

DET · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Gavin Williams
HL

Hao-Yu Lee

DET · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Gavin Williams
TB

Travis Bazzana

CLE · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 21% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
CK

Colt Keith

DET · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Gavin Williams
AG

Angel Genao

CLE · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
PB

Patrick Bailey

CLE · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
PH

Petey Halpin

CLE · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
BR

Brayan Rocchio

CLE · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
MC

Max Clark

DET · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 58%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Gavin Williams
BM

Ben Malgeri

DET · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 58%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Gavin Williams
BC

Brett Callahan

DET · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 58%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Gavin Williams
JP

John Peck

DET · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 58%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Gavin Williams
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JACKSON JOBE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.1%OPS-against.950
vs Left-handedK%16.7%OPS-against.747
CLE vs RHP (team)OPS.692K%21.0%

GAVIN WILLIAMS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how DET hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%31.6%OPS-against.775
vs Left-handedK%34.0%OPS-against.597
DET vs RHP (team)OPS.720K%22.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CLE BATTERS vs JACKSON JOBE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

DET BATTERS vs GAVIN WILLIAMS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
DET 1·CLE 2
4-game set · gm 4 of 4
2026 SEASON
DET 3·CLE 10
13 played · 6 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%CLE
DET 136 · CLE 172 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-05DET 6-0 · Blowout
2026-09-04CLE 4-3 · One-run game
2026-09-04CLE 7-6 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
DET41¢ · 41%
CLE62¢ · 62%
Total 7.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
DET -1.5— · —
CLE +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

DET OFFENSE

.253L15 team wOBA
-63 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

CLE OFFENSE

.305L15 team wOBA
-11 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT75° · 9mph in from CF
PROGRESSIVE FIELD
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
75°F
Wind9 mph in from CF
Humidity60%
Rain0%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
METZ
Called K rate-0.5% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr52

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

GUARDIANS 54%

Mean score sim 3.4–3.6 · projected total 7.0 runs · built on locked lineups

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