CLEVELANDCLE
73-71 · +2 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 5-5 L10
@2026-09-06BAL HOME PARK
69-75 · +5 AL EAST · L6 · 4-6 L10
BALTIMOREBAL
Weather
76°F · 9mph in from CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETOrioles 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CLE BAL

Game Markets

CLE @ BAL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

BAL F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

50%

Run Line

BAL -1.5

34%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.32 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: CLE 4.17, BAL 4.15
  • Joey Cantillo (CLE) vs Trevor Rogers (BAL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JC

Joey Cantillo

CLE SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

73%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

9%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

63%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
  • 73% to reach 5+ against BAL
TR

Trevor Rogers

BAL SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

85%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

56%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

51%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
  • 55% to reach 5+ against CLE

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

BAL vs LHP (team)OPS.712K%26.2%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

CLE vs RHP (team)OPS.692K%21.0%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

BAL BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CLE BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CLE 0·BAL 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
CLE 3·BAL 1
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%CLE
CLE 60 · BAL 47 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-04-19CLE 8-4
2026-04-18CLE 4-2
2026-04-17BAL 6-4
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CLE49¢ · 49%
BAL55¢ · 55%
Total 8.5
Over50¢ · 50%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
CLE -1.5 ·
BAL +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.588.588.5last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

CLE OFFENSE

.297L15 team wOBA
-19 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

BAL OFFENSE

.275L15 team wOBA
-41 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT76° · 9mph in from CF
CAMDEN YARDS
102HR
HR factor1.02 · neutral
Runs factor0.99 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Post-2022 wall changes suppress LH HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
76°F
Wind9 mph in from CF
Humidity52%
Rain0%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

ORIOLES 51%

Mean score sim 4.24.2 · projected total 8.3 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

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