MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Tyler Phillips · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
high-K profile + cooperative opp
Seiya Suzuki · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
hot bat in run-producing spot
Michael Busch · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
RBI specialist hitting in front of traffic
Alex Bregman · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
L30 RBI pace + matchup
Michael Conforto · Over 0.5 1+ Hits
L30 contact rate + matchup
Griffin Conine · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
RBI specialist hitting in front of traffic
Griffin Conine · Over 0.5 1+ Hits
barrel% surging, sees enough PAs
Griffin Conine · Over 0.5 1+ HR
matchup grade lights up the HR pricing
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
CHC @ MIA · full-game reads
Moneyline
CHC to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
MIA F5
40%
Game Total
Over 8.5
54%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
54%
Run Line
MIA -1.5
30%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
50%
Team Total
MIA Over 4.5
42%
THE READ
CHC projects to outscore MIA by 0.67 runs across 5,000 trials.
CHC SP · vs. MIA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
88%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
56%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
66%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
53%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
MIA SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
93%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
32%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
62%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
47%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
CHC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
33%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 26% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CHC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CHC · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CHC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CHC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
CHC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
MIA · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
CHC · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 64%.
MIA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 30% against 31%.
CHC · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 29% against 31%.
MIA · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.
CHC · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.
MIA · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 64%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).
Cavernous OF.
Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 5.0–4.3 · projected total 9.3 runs · built on locked lineups
That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.
Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read
BetFly publishes sports predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only — not financial, investment, or wagering advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Must be 21+. Not available in all states.