BETFLYAISIGN IN
CHICAGOCHC
81-62 · +2 NL CENTRAL · W3 · 5-5 L10
@SUN 1:40 PM ETMIA HOME PARK
71-72 · +3 NL EAST · L3 · 4-6 L10
MIAMIMIA
Weather
87°F · 3mph out to CF
Home plate ump
Ben May K-0.8%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Clay Holmes
RHP · CHCPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
2.09
IP
81.2
K/9
6.9
BB/9
3.0
WHIP
1.07
L5 STARTS1.59 ERA · 16.2% K · 8.1% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
51%
19%
15%
9%
SinkerSweeperChangeupCurveballCutter
Tyler Phillips
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+97
ERA
3.43
IP
110.1
K/9
7.3
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.33
L5 STARTS3.10 ERA · 27.3% K · 10.2% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
25%
24%
24%
17%
9%
SinkerSweeperSplit-FingerCurveball4-Seam Fastball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS3 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Tyler Phillips · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

high-K profile + cooperative opp

-154 DraftKings61% book87% +26pp

Michael Conforto · Over 0.5 1+ Hits

L30 contact rate + matchup

+112 BetRivers47% book59% +12pp

Griffin Conine · Over 0.5 1+ Hits

barrel% surging, sees enough PAs

-136 BetRivers58% book64% +6pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETCubs 56%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CHC MIA

Game Markets

CHC @ MIA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CHC to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

MIA F5

39%

Game Total

Over 8.5

56%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

56%

Run Line

MIA -1.5

30%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

53%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

CHC projects to outscore MIA by 0.87 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CHC 5.24, MIA 4.38
  • Clay Holmes (CHC) vs Tyler Phillips (MIA)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
CH

Clay Holmes

CHC SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

62%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

69%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

55%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 46% to reach 5+ against MIA
TP

Tyler Phillips

MIA SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

86%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

18%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 46% to reach 5+ against CHC
PC

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

31%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

44%

Total Bases

4+ bases

37%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
GC

Griffin Conine

MIA · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Clay Holmes
KS

Kyle Stowers

MIA · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 26% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Clay Holmes
SS

Seiya Suzuki

CHC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
IH

Ian Happ

CHC · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
HH

Heriberto Hernández

MIA · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Clay Holmes
MC

Michael Conforto

CHC · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
MB

Michael Busch

CHC · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 28% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
AB

Alex Bregman

CHC · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
NH

Nico Hoerner

CHC · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
OL

Otto Lopez

MIA · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Clay Holmes
OC

Owen Caissie

MIA · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Clay Holmes
JS

Javier Sanoja

MIA · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Clay Holmes
PR

Pedro Ramírez

CHC · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 65%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
JM

Joe Mack

MIA · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 65%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Clay Holmes
JM

Jakob Marsee

MIA · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 65%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Clay Holmes
CK

Carson Kelly

CHC · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 65%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
GP

Graham Pauley

MIA · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 65%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Clay Holmes
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CLAY HOLMES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.6%OPS-against.476
vs Left-handedK%19.0%OPS-against.634
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.737K%21.2%

TYLER PHILLIPS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.2%OPS-against.637
vs Left-handedK%19.0%OPS-against.755
CHC vs RHP (team)OPS.757K%21.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIA BATTERS vs CLAY HOLMES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CHC BATTERS vs TYLER PHILLIPS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CHC 2·MIA 0
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
CHC 2·MIA 0
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
60%CHC
CHC 58 · MIA 39 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-05CHC 6-5 · One-run game
2026-09-04CHC 6-1
2025-05-21CHC 2-1 · Pitchers duel
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CHC59¢ · 59%
MIA44¢ · 44%
Total 8
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
CHC -1.5— · —
MIA +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CHC OFFENSE

.368L15 team wOBA
+52 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

MIA OFFENSE

.304L15 team wOBA
-12 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT87° · 3mph out to CF
LOANDEPOT PARK
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Cavernous OF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
87°F
Wind3 mph out to CF
Humidity75%
Rain14%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
MAY
Called K rate-0.8% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr287

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

CUBS 56%

Mean score sim 5.2–4.4 · projected total 9.6 runs · built on locked lineups

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