AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

BOS vs BAL

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

Sunday, September 6, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the BOS @ BAL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

BOSTONBOS

0·0

BALTIMOREBAL

TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

BOS Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL85.6

SL84.2

SL85.2

FB95.6

SL85.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

BOS Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · BOS LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

BAL to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

BAL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL BAL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

BAL wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYBOS Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEBOS

LINEUP EDGEBOS

BOS STARTER

Payton Tolle

GOOD

7.5
PROJECTED Ks: 112
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 45% · 29% whiffSinker · 23% · 17% whiffCutter · 20% · 28% whiff

BAL STARTER

Kyle Bradish

AVERAGE

4.6
PROJECTED Ks: 101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 36% · 11% whiffSlider · 25% · 35% whiffCurveball · 22% · 36% whiff

Kyle Bradish grades avg (Pitching+ 101) vs Payton Tolle grades good (Pitching+ 112)

BOS LINEUP

1Roman Anthony (L)hit 65% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
2Mickey Gasper (S)hit 64% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
3Adley Rutschman (S)hit 58% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
4Trevor Story (R)hit 62% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
5Nick Sogard (S)hit 59% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
6Caleb Durbin (R)hit 56% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
7Jarren Duran (L)hit 57% · HR 19%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
8Andruw Monasterio (R)hit 56% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
9Eli White (R)hit 56% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN

BAL LINEUP

1Blaze Alexander (R)hit 63% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
2Pete Alonso (R)hit 67% · HR 22%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
3Coby Mayo (R)hit 60% · HR 24%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
24%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
4Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)hit 61% · HR 19%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
5Gunnar Henderson (L)hit 56% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
6Rece Hinds (R)hit 46% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
17%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
20%
SCORES A RUN
7Leody Taveras (S)hit 46% · HR 5%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
16%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
22%
SCORES A RUN
8Carlos Narváez (R)hit 43% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
43%
1+ HIT
9%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
19%
2+ BASES
9%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
16%
RBI
4%
2+ RBIs
22%
SCORES A RUN
9Colton Cowser (L)hit 48% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
48%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

BOS BAL

Game Markets

BOS @ BAL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BOS to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

BAL F5

33%

Game Total

Over 8.5

40%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

44%

Run Line

BAL -1.5

27%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

31%

THE READ

BOS projects to outscore BAL by 0.85 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: BOS 4.39, BAL 3.54
Payton Tolle (BOS) vs Kyle Bradish (BAL)
Run on confirmed lineups

Payton Tolle

BOS SP · vs. BAL

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

90%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

78%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

32%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

81%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

46%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 7.5 strikeouts
90% to reach 5+ against BAL

Kyle Bradish

BAL SP · vs. BOS

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

90%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

48%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
50% to reach 5+ against BOS

Coby Mayo

BAL · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Facing Payton Tolle

Pete Alonso

BAL · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Payton Tolle

Mickey Gasper

BOS · bats S · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Kyle Bradish

Jarren Duran

BOS · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 7 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Kyle Bradish

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

BAL · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Facing Payton Tolle

Roman Anthony

BOS · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Kyle Bradish

Blaze Alexander

BAL · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Facing Payton Tolle

Trevor Story

BOS · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Facing Kyle Bradish

Adley Rutschman

BOS · bats S · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

Batting 3 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Kyle Bradish

Eli White

BOS · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Facing Kyle Bradish

Nick Sogard

BOS · bats S · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

Batting 5 · bats S
Facing Kyle Bradish

Andruw Monasterio

BOS · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Kyle Bradish

Caleb Durbin

BOS · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Kyle Bradish

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

Batting 5 · bats L
Facing Payton Tolle

Colton Cowser

BAL · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 13%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Facing Payton Tolle

Leody Taveras

BAL · bats S · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 59%.

Batting 7 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Payton Tolle

Rece Hinds

BAL · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 59%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Payton Tolle

Carlos Narváez

BAL · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

16%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 59%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Payton Tolle

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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