BETFLYAISIGN IN

AI MODEL READ

CONFIRMED LINEUPS

BOS vs BAL

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

Sunday, September 6, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the BOS @ BAL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

BOSTONBOS
0·0
BALTIMOREBAL
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

BOS DUGOUTBAL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Roman Anthony (L) vs HP

SL85.6
SL84.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Roman Anthony in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · ROMAN ANTHONY

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

BAL to win

46%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

BAL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL BAL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

BAL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYRoman Anthony at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 77 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEBOS
LINEUP EDGEBOS

BOS STARTER

Payton Tolle

GOOD
7.6
PROJECTED Ks
112
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 45% · 29% whiffSinker · 23% · 17% whiffCutter · 20% · 28% whiff

BAL STARTER

Kyle Bradish

AVERAGE
4.5
PROJECTED Ks
101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 36% · 11% whiffSlider · 25% · 35% whiffCurveball · 22% · 36% whiff

Kyle Bradish grades avg (Pitching+ 101) vs Payton Tolle grades good (Pitching+ 112)

BOS LINEUP

  1. 1Roman Anthonyhit 65% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Mickey Gasper (S)hit 66% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Adley Rutschman (S)hit 58% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Trevor Storyhit 62% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nick Sogard (S)hit 58% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Caleb Durbin (R)hit 56% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jarren Duran (L)hit 56% · HR 18%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Andruw Monasterio (R)hit 55% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Eli White (R)hit 56% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

BAL LINEUP

  1. 1Blaze Alexanderhit 63% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Pete Alonso (R)hit 67% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Coby Mayo (R)hit 61% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)hit 60% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Gunnar Henderson (L)hit 58% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Rece Hindshit 47% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    20%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Leody Taveras (S)hit 45% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    45%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    21%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Carlos Narváez (R)hit 42% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    42%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    18%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    21%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Colton Cowser (L)hit 48% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

BOS BAL

Game Markets

BOS @ BAL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BOS to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

BAL F5

35%

Game Total

Over 8.5

42%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

47%

Run Line

BAL -1.5

29%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

34%

THE READ

BOS projects to outscore BAL by 0.63 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BOS 4.34, BAL 3.71
  • Payton Tolle (BOS) vs Kyle Bradish (BAL)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
PT

Payton Tolle

BOS SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

90%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

34%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

86%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

55%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.6 strikeouts
  • 90% to reach 5+ against BAL
KB

Kyle Bradish

BAL SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

91%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

44%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 47% to reach 5+ against BOS
CM

Coby Mayo

BAL · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Payton Tolle
PA

Pete Alonso

BAL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Payton Tolle
MG

Mickey Gasper

BOS · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kyle Bradish
CE

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

BAL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Payton Tolle
RA

Roman Anthony

BOS · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kyle Bradish
JD

Jarren Duran

BOS · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Bradish
BA

Blaze Alexander

BAL · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Payton Tolle
TS

Trevor Story

BOS · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Kyle Bradish
EW

Eli White

BOS · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Kyle Bradish
AR

Adley Rutschman

BOS · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Bradish
NS

Nick Sogard

BOS · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Kyle Bradish
GH

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Payton Tolle
CD

Caleb Durbin

BOS · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Bradish
AM

Andruw Monasterio

BOS · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Bradish
CC

Colton Cowser

BAL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 13%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Payton Tolle
LT

Leody Taveras

BAL · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Payton Tolle
RH

Rece Hinds

BAL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 60%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Payton Tolle
CN

Carlos Narváez

BAL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

16%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 60%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Payton Tolle

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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