AI MODEL READ

CONFIRMED LINEUPS

ATL vs PHI

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies

Sunday, September 6, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the ATL @ PHI simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

ATLANTAATL

0·0

PHILADELPHIAPHI

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

Drake Baldwin (L) vs HP

CH84.5

SL85

CV79.2

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Drake Baldwin in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · DRAKE BALDWIN

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PHI to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PHI -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PHI

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PHI wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYDrake Baldwin at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 82 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

ATL Over 3.5 runs

48%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 89-for-296 (.301) with 21 HR vs. this starter, career · 79°F, 10mph wind

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEPHI

LINEUP EDGEATL

ATL STARTER

Tyler Mahle

AVERAGE

4.3
PROJECTED Ks: 100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 49% · 23% whiffSplit-Finger · 28% · 27% whiffCutter · 16% · 16% whiff

PHI STARTER

Aaron Nola

GOOD

6.5
PROJECTED Ks: 107
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Curveball · 33% · 43% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 24% · 14% whiffSinker · 18% · 12% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Aaron Nola grades good (Pitching+ 107) vs Tyler Mahle grades avg (Pitching+ 100)

ATL LINEUP

1Drake Baldwin (L)hit 70% · HR 23%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
47%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
51%
SCORES A RUN
2Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)hit 66% · HR 22%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
3Matt Olson (L)hit 64% · HR 27%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
27%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
27%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
4Michael Harris II (L)hit 68% · HR 19%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
5Mauricio Dubón (R)hit 60% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
6Ozzie Albies (S)hit 54% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
7Sean Murphy (R)hit 51% · HR 16%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
8Austin Riley (R)hit 51% · HR 13%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
9Mike Yastrzemski (L)hit 52% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN

PHI LINEUP

1Kyle Schwarber (L)hit 67% · HR 34%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
34%
HOME RUN
49%
2+ BASES
39%
3+ BASES
34%
4+ BASES
43%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
54%
SCORES A RUN
2Trea Turner (R)hit 62% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
3Bryce Harper (L)hit 69% · HR 28%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
28%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
36%
3+ BASES
30%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
4Luis Arraez (L)hit 68% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
5Alec Bohm (R)hit 62% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
6Bryson Stott (L)hit 57% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
7Brandon Marsh (L)hit 60% · HR 13%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
8Justin Crawford (L)hit 58% · HR 4%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
4%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
9Garrett Stubbs (L)hit 42% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
42%
1+ HIT
9%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
18%
2+ BASES
9%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN

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169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

ATL PHI

Game Markets

ATL @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATL to win

50%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

34%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.43 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

Projected runs: ATL 4.26, PHI 4.18
Tyler Mahle (ATL) vs Aaron Nola (PHI)
Run on confirmed lineups

Tyler Mahle

ATL SP · vs. PHI

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

79%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

21%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
45% to reach 5+ against PHI

Aaron Nola

PHI SP · vs. ATL

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

17%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

90%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

49%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 6.4 strikeouts
80% to reach 5+ against ATL

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

33%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

35%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Tyler Mahle

Bryce Harper

PHI · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Tyler Mahle

Matt Olson

ATL · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Aaron Nola

Drake Baldwin

ATL · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Aaron Nola

Michael Harris II

ATL · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Facing Aaron Nola

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Hot streak, thin underlying support
Facing Aaron Nola

Luis Arraez

PHI · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Facing Tyler Mahle

Alec Bohm

PHI · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Tyler Mahle

Brandon Marsh

PHI · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Tyler Mahle

Mauricio Dubón

ATL · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Aaron Nola

Trea Turner

PHI · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 2 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Tyler Mahle

Sean Murphy

ATL · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 53%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Hot streak, thin underlying support
Facing Aaron Nola

Justin Crawford

PHI · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 62%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Facing Tyler Mahle

Bryson Stott

PHI · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 62%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Facing Tyler Mahle

Ozzie Albies

ATL · bats S · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 62%.

Batting 6 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Aaron Nola

Mike Yastrzemski

ATL · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 62%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Aaron Nola

Austin Riley

ATL · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 62%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Aaron Nola

Garrett Stubbs

PHI · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

44%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 44% against 62%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Tyler Mahle

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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