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AI MODEL READ

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ATL vs PHI

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies

Sunday, September 6, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the ATL @ PHI simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

ATLANTAATL
0·0
PHILADELPHIAPHI
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

ATL DUGOUTPHI DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

ATL Leadoff (R) vs HP

CH84.5
SL85
CV77.4
CV75.4

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

ATL Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · ATL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PHI to win

49%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PHI -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PHI

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PHI wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYATL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Atlanta wins

51%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical

GAME TOTAL

✓ CONFIRMED

ATL Over 3.5 runs

48%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 89-for-296 (.301) with 21 HR vs. this starter, career · 79°F, 10mph wind

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEPHI
LINEUP EDGEATL

ATL STARTER

Grant Holmes

SHAKY
4.0
PROJECTED Ks
91
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Slider · 37% · 39% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 29% · 16% whiffSinker · 12% · 16% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

PHI STARTER

Jesús Luzardo

GOOD
9.6
PROJECTED Ks
111
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sweeper · 38% · 47% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 26% · 18% whiffChangeup · 19% · 38% whiff

Jesús Luzardo grades good (Pitching+ 111) vs Grant Holmes grades poor (Pitching+ 91)

ATL LINEUP

  1. 1Drake Baldwin (L)hit 71% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    52%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)hit 69% · HR 25%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Matt Olson (L)hit 63% · HR 27%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Michael Harris II (L)hit 68% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Mauricio Dubón (R)hit 62% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Ozzie Albies (S)hit 55% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Sean Murphy (R)hit 52% · HR 17%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Austin Riley (R)hit 53% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Mike Yastrzemski (L)hit 51% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

PHI LINEUP

  1. 1Kyle Schwarber (L)hit 68% · HR 35%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    35%

    HOME RUN

    50%

    2+ BASES

    40%

    3+ BASES

    35%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    55%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Trea Turner (R)hit 62% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryce Harper (L)hit 72% · HR 29%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    38%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    42%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Luis Arraez (L)hit 68% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Alec Bohm (R)hit 62% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Bryson Stott (L)hit 59% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Brandon Marsh (L)hit 62% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Justin Crawford (L)hit 58% · HR 4%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Garrett Stubbs (L)hit 48% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

ATL PHI

Game Markets

ATL @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

66%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

59%

Game Total

Over 8.5

38%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

44%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

47%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

25%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore ATL by 1.37 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATL 3.14, PHI 4.51
  • Grant Holmes (ATL) vs Jesús Luzardo (PHI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
GH

Grant Holmes

ATL SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

55%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

24%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 37% to reach 5+ against PHI
JL

Jesús Luzardo

PHI SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

99%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

96%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

90%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

68%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

98%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 9.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 9.6 strikeouts
  • 99% to reach 5+ against ATL
KS

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

35%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

42%

Total Bases

4+ bases

38%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 35% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Grant Holmes
BH

Bryce Harper

PHI · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Grant Holmes
MO

Matt Olson

ATL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
RJ

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
DB

Drake Baldwin

ATL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
LA

Luis Arraez

PHI · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Grant Holmes
MI

Michael Harris II

ATL · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
AB

Alec Bohm

PHI · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Grant Holmes
TT

Trea Turner

PHI · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Grant Holmes
SM

Sean Murphy

ATL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
BM

Brandon Marsh

PHI · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Grant Holmes
MD

Mauricio Dubón

ATL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
BS

Bryson Stott

PHI · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Grant Holmes
JC

Justin Crawford

PHI · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Grant Holmes
OA

Ozzie Albies

ATL · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 64%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
AR

Austin Riley

ATL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
MY

Mike Yastrzemski

ATL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
GS

Garrett Stubbs

PHI · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Grant Holmes

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.