AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

ATH vs SEA

ATH at Seattle Mariners

Sunday, September 6, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the ATH @ SEA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

ATH

0·0

SEATTLESEA

TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

ATH Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.8

FB93.5

CH84.2

FB95.1

FB93.2

CH86.4

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

ATH Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · ATH LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SEA to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SEA -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SEA

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SEA wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYATH Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 6

event 1 / 14 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESEA

ATH STARTER

Gage Jump

AVERAGE

5.7
PROJECTED Ks: 102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 46% · 23% whiffSlider · 23% · 28% whiffCurveball · 11% · 26% whiff

SEA STARTER

Bryan Woo

GOOD

5.6
PROJECTED Ks: 113
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 47% · 25% whiffSinker · 19% · 13% whiffSlider · 15% · 32% whiff

Bryan Woo grades good (Pitching+ 113) vs Gage Jump grades avg (Pitching+ 102)

ATH LINEUP

Lineup not posted yet — check back closer to first pitch.

SEA LINEUP

1Randy Arozarena (R)hit 61% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
2Dominic Canzone (L)hit 62% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
3Julio Rodríguez (R)hit 58% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
4Cal Raleigh (S)hit 51% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
5J.P. Crawford (L)hit 50% · HR 6%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
6Josh Naylor (L)hit 57% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
7Weston Wilson (R)hit 47% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
8Michael Arroyohit 50% · HR 4%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
4%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
9%
3+ BASES
5%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
9Jhonny Pereda (R)hit 51% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

ATH SEA

Game Markets

ATH @ SEA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SEA to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

SEA F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

34%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

38%

Run Line

SEA -1.5

35%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

31%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

33%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 7.29 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

Projected runs: ATH 3.58, SEA 3.71
Gage Jump (ATH) vs Bryan Woo (SEA)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Gage Jump

ATH SP · vs. SEA

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

70%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

67%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

26%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

42%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.

Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
70% to reach 5+ against SEA

Bryan Woo

SEA SP · vs. ATH

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

82%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

57%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.

Sim projects 5.6 strikeouts
67% to reach 5+ against ATH

Dominic Canzone

SEA · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Facing Gage Jump

Randy Arozarena

SEA · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Gage Jump

Cal Raleigh

SEA · bats S · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Gage Jump

Julio Rodríguez

SEA · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Facing Gage Jump

Josh Naylor

SEA · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 19% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats L
Facing Gage Jump

Jhonny Pereda

SEA · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 57%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Facing Gage Jump

Michael Arroyo

SEA · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 57%.

Batting 8
Facing Gage Jump

J.P. Crawford

SEA · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 57%.

Batting 5 · bats L
Hot streak, thin underlying support
Facing Gage Jump

Weston Wilson

SEA · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 11%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Gage Jump

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.