ARIZONAARI
@2026-09-06HOU HOME PARK
73-70 · +1 AL WEST · L1 · 7-3 L10
HOUSTONHOU
Weather
87°F · 4mph out to CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 53%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

ARI HOU

Game Markets

ARI @ HOU · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

HOU F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

HOU -1.5

36%

Team Total

ARI Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.19 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: ARI 4.02, HOU 4.18
  • Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) vs Peter Lambert (HOU)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
ER

Eduardo Rodriguez

ARI SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

93%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

58%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

67%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

53%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 25% to reach 5+ against HOU
PL

Peter Lambert

HOU SP · vs. ARI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

51%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 38% to reach 5+ against ARI
YA

Yordan Alvarez

HOU · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

80%

Hits

2+ hits

41%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

35%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Eduardo Rodriguez
JP

Jeremy Peña

HOU · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Eduardo Rodriguez
KM

Ketel Marte

ARI · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Facing Peter Lambert
GM

Gabriel Moreno

ARI · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Peter Lambert
CW

Christian Walker

HOU · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Eduardo Rodriguez
CC

Corbin Carroll

ARI · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Peter Lambert
NV

Nelson Velázquez

HOU · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Eduardo Rodriguez
IP

Isaac Paredes

HOU · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Eduardo Rodriguez
JM

James McCann

ARI · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Peter Lambert
NA

Nolan Arenado

ARI · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Peter Lambert
JA

Jose Altuve

HOU · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Eduardo Rodriguez
GP

Geraldo Perdomo

ARI · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Facing Peter Lambert
CS

Cam Smith

HOU · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Eduardo Rodriguez
TT

Tommy Troy

ARI · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Peter Lambert
IV

Ildemaro Vargas

ARI · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Peter Lambert
DV

Daulton Varsho

HOU · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Eduardo Rodriguez
JL

Jordan Lawlar

ARI · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 12%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Peter Lambert
CV

Christian Vázquez

HOU · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Eduardo Rodriguez
SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

HOU vs LHP (team)OPS.706K%21.0%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ARI vs RHP (team)OPS.681K%19.9%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

HOU BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ARI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ARI 0·HOU 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
ARI 0·HOU 1
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
100%HOU
ARI 0 · HOU 35 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-05AZ 4-3 · One-run game
2026-09-05HOU 3-1
2025-07-23HOU 4-3 · One-run game
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
ARI51¢ · 51%
HOU52¢ · 52%
Total 8
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
ARI -1.5 ·
HOU +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT87.588.587.58last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

ARI OFFENSE

.282L15 team wOBA
-34 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

HOU OFFENSE

.292L15 team wOBA
-24 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT87° · 4mph out to CF
MINUTE MAID PARK
98HR
HR factor0.98 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral — Crawford Boxes LF-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
87°F
Wind4 mph out to CF
Humidity75%
Rain19%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

ASTROS 53%

Mean score sim 4.04.2 · projected total 8.2 runs · built on locked lineups

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