MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Jacob deGrom · Over 5.5 6+ Ks
high-K profile + cooperative opp
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
TB @ TEX · full-game reads
Moneyline
TEX to win
52%
1st 5 Innings
TEX F5
45%
Game Total
Over 8.5
34%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
34%
Run Line
TEX -1.5
33%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
33%
Team Total
TEX Over 4.5
32%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 7.31 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
TB SP · vs. TEX
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
63%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
44%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
87%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
42%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
58%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
42%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.
TEX SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
82%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
70%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
29%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
55%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
27%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
32%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
20%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Neutral with roof.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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