BETFLYAISIGN IN
ST. LOUISSTL
71-71 · +3 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 5-5 L10
@SAT 8:10 PM ETCOL HOME PARK
54-87 · +5 NL WEST · L1 · 4-6 L10
COLORADOCOL
Weather
93°F · 5mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Matthew Liberatore
LHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
5.41
IP
134.2
K/9
9.4
BB/9
3.1
WHIP
1.47
L5 STARTS7.47 ERA · 30.1% K · 5.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
23%
17%
15%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderCurveballChangeupSinkerCutter
Mason Adams
RHP · COLPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
3.00
IP
9.0
K/9
10.0
BB/9
5.0
WHIP
1.44
L5 STARTS3.00 ERA · 26.3% K · 13.2% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETCardinals 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

STL COL

Game Markets

STL @ COL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

STL to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

COL F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

72%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

69%

Run Line

COL -1.5

32%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

64%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

57%

THE READ

STL projects to outscore COL by 0.76 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: STL 6.26, COL 5.50
  • Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs Mason Adams (COL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
ML

Matthew Liberatore

STL SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

43%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

5%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
  • 52% to reach 5+ against COL
MA

Mason Adams

COL SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

2%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
  • 15% to reach 5+ against STL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

MATTHEW LIBERATORE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.8%OPS-against.807
vs Left-handedK%24.5%OPS-against.861
COL vs RHP (team)OPS.756K%21.7%

MASON ADAMS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%26.3%OPS-against.956
vs Left-handedK%26.3%OPS-against.691
STL vs LHP (team)OPS.717K%18.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

COL BATTERS vs MATTHEW LIBERATORE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

STL BATTERS vs MASON ADAMS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
STL 1·COL 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
STL 3·COL 1
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
63%STL
STL 64 · COL 38 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-05STL 7-6 · One-run game
2026-08-09STL 7-4
2026-08-08COL 8-6
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
STL55¢ · 55%
COL49¢ · 49%
Total 10.5
Over50¢ · 50%
Under54¢ · 54%
Run line ±1.5
STL -1.5— · —
COL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT11→11.5→11→10.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

STL OFFENSE

.310L15 team wOBA
-6 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

COL OFFENSE

.316L15 team wOBA
0 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT93° · 5mph out to LF
COORS FIELD
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.18 · +
Doubles factor1.18 · +

Altitude — extreme run environment.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
93°F
Wind5 mph out to LF
Humidity15%
Rain3%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO