BETFLYAISIGN IN
SAN FRANCISCOSF
58-84 · +4 NL WEST · L2 · 4-6 L10
@SAT 4:10 PM ETNYM HOME PARK
64-77 · +5 NL EAST · W2 · 5-5 L10
NEW YORKNYM
Weather
79°F · 10mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Anthony Molina
RHP · SFPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
3.77
IP
14.1
K/9
5.7
BB/9
1.3
WHIP
1.05
L5 STARTS3.83 ERA · 16.1% K · 3.6% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Zac Thornton
LHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
2.93
IP
61.1
K/9
6.6
BB/9
2.0
WHIP
1.16
L5 STARTS3.00 ERA · 18.9% K · 3.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
Cutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGiants 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SF NYM

Game Markets

SF @ NYM · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SF to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

NYM F5

37%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

55%

Run Line

NYM -1.5

30%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

51%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

SF projects to outscore NYM by 0.80 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SF 4.95, NYM 4.15
  • Anthony Molina (SF) vs Zac Thornton (NYM)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
AM

Anthony Molina

SF SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

81%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

13%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

47%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 19% to reach 5+ against NYM
ZT

Zac Thornton

NYM SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

25%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

56%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 18% to reach 5+ against SF

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

ANTHONY MOLINA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%25.0%OPS-against.450
vs Left-handedK%15.8%OPS-against.632
NYM vs LHP (team)OPS.701K%23.2%

ZAC THORNTON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.5%OPS-against.778
vs Left-handedK%15.8%OPS-against.446
SF vs RHP (team)OPS.736K%20.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYM BATTERS vs ANTHONY MOLINA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SF BATTERS vs ZAC THORNTON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SF 0·NYM 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
SF 1·NYM 4
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
50%SF
SF 53 · NYM 54 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-04NYM 10-6 · Slugfest
2026-04-05NYM 5-2
2026-04-05NYM 9-0 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SF39¢ · 39%
NYM64¢ · 64%
Total 8
Over51¢ · 51%
Under54¢ · 54%
Run line ±1.5
SF -1.5— · —
NYM +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→12.5→8→7.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

SF OFFENSE

.327L15 team wOBA
+11 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

NYM OFFENSE

.303L15 team wOBA
-14 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT79° · 10mph out to RF
CITI FIELD
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.95 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Deep OF, dead air.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
79°F
Wind10 mph out to RF
Humidity43%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO