BETFLYAISIGN IN
NEW YORKNYY
80-61 · +2 AL EAST · L1 · 6-4 L10
@SAT 7:15 PM ETSD HOME PARK
74-67 · +2 NL WEST · W1 · 3-7 L10
SAN DIEGOSD
Weather
82°F · 8mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Carlos Rodón
LHP · NYYPROBABLE
STUFF+108
ERA
3.20
IP
59.0
K/9
9.6
BB/9
4.7
WHIP
1.19
L5 STARTS2.83 ERA · 22.9% K · 11.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
44%
24%
16%
14%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSinker
Robbie Ray
LHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+95
ERA
3.14
IP
149.0
K/9
7.6
BB/9
4.4
WHIP
1.30
L5 STARTS3.45 ERA · 17.3% K · 14.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
27%
17%
10%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSinkerCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETYankees 60%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYY SD

Game Markets

NYY @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

60%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

36%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

SD -1.5

25%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

31%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore SD by 1.19 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYY 4.78, SD 3.59
  • Carlos Rodón (NYY) vs Robbie Ray (SD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CR

Carlos Rodón

NYY SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

27%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

33%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

21%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
  • 56% to reach 5+ against SD
RR

Robbie Ray

SD SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

66%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
  • 61% to reach 5+ against NYY

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CARLOS RODÓN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%25.7%OPS-against.553
vs Left-handedK%25.0%OPS-against.765
SD vs LHP (team)OPS.688K%22.1%

ROBBIE RAY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%20.1%OPS-against.679
vs Left-handedK%23.3%OPS-against.691
NYY vs LHP (team)OPS.726K%24.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SD BATTERS vs CARLOS RODÓN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYY BATTERS vs ROBBIE RAY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYY 0·SD 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYY 0·SD 1
1 played · 18 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%NYY
NYY 10 · SD 9 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-05SD 3-2 · One-run game
2025-05-07NYY 4-3 · One-run game
2025-05-06NYY 12-3 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYY51¢ · 51%
SD53¢ · 53%
Total 7.5
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
NYY -1.5— · —
SD +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→8→7.5→8→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYY OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

SD OFFENSE

.297L15 team wOBA
-19 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT82° · 8mph out to RF
PETCO PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Marine layer suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
82°F
Wind8 mph out to RF
Humidity44%
Rain3%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO