MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Dustin May · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
modest K rate + contact-shy opp
Dustin May · Under 15.5 <16 Outs
quick-hook risk: walks + traffic shorten the start
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
MIL @ CIN · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
61%
1st 5 Innings
CIN F5
34%
Game Total
Over 8.5
61%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
63%
Run Line
CIN -1.5
25%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
59%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
43%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore CIN by 1.51 runs across 5,000 trials.
MIL SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
55%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
16%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
54%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
39%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.
CIN SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
54%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
27%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
52%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
League’s hottest HR park.
Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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