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DETROITDET
64-77 · +4 AL CENTRAL · L2 · 3-7 L10
@SAT 6:10 PM ETCLE HOME PARK
72-70 · +2 AL CENTRAL · W2 · 6-4 L10
CLEVELANDCLE
Weather
74°F · 10mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Framber Valdez
LHP · DETPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
4.36
IP
150.2
K/9
6.9
BB/9
3.4
WHIP
1.40
L5 STARTS4.29 ERA · 13.7% K · 10.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
46%
28%
20%
SinkerCurveballChangeupSlider
Parker Messick
LHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
2.46
IP
161.0
K/9
9.0
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.02
L5 STARTS2.07 ERA · 27.3% K · 5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
24%
17%
11%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSinkerCurveballCutterSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Framber Valdez · Under 16.5 <17 Outs

early-trouble profile vs a patient lineup

-103 DraftKings51% book56% +6pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 60%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

DET CLE

Game Markets

DET @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

60%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

41%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

35%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore DET by 0.74 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: DET 3.80, CLE 4.54
  • Framber Valdez (DET) vs Parker Messick (CLE)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
FV

Framber Valdez

DET SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

82%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

14%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 23% to reach 5+ against CLE
PM

Parker Messick

CLE SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

68%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

9%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

69%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.6 strikeouts
  • 68% to reach 5+ against DET

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

FRAMBER VALDEZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%15.0%OPS-against.732
vs Left-handedK%25.5%OPS-against.709
CLE vs LHP (team)OPS.670K%22.2%

PARKER MESSICK SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how DET hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%26.1%OPS-against.571
vs Left-handedK%23.2%OPS-against.669
DET vs LHP (team)OPS.686K%22.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CLE BATTERS vs FRAMBER VALDEZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

DET BATTERS vs PARKER MESSICK

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
DET 0·CLE 2
4-game set · gm 3 of 4
2026 SEASON
DET 2·CLE 10
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%CLE
DET 135 · CLE 172 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-04CLE 4-3 · One-run game
2026-09-04CLE 7-6 · One-run game
2026-08-13DET 3-0 · Pitchers duel
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
DET43¢ · 43%
CLE61¢ · 61%
Total 7
Over53¢ · 53%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
DET -1.5— · —
CLE +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→12.5→8→12.5→8→7.5→7last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

DET OFFENSE

.247L15 team wOBA
-69 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

CLE OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-2 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT74° · 10mph in from CF
PROGRESSIVE FIELD
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
74°F
Wind10 mph in from CF
Humidity61%
Rain1%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO