BETFLYAISIGN IN
CHICAGOCHC
80-62 · +2 NL CENTRAL · W2 · 4-6 L10
@SAT 4:10 PM ETMIA HOME PARK
71-71 · +3 NL EAST · L2 · 4-6 L10
MIAMIMIA
Weather
86°F · 3mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Javier Assad
RHP · CHCPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
3.46
IP
83.1
K/9
5.9
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
1.10
L5 STARTS2.08 ERA · 18.6% K · 7.1% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
39%
20%
15%
Sinker4-Seam FastballCutterChangeupSweeperSlider
Ryan Gusto
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+94
ERA
3.86
IP
67.2
K/9
7.6
BB/9
2.7
WHIP
1.33
L5 STARTS2.09 ERA · 18% K · 7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
19%
14%
13%
12%
9%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSinkerCutterSweeperSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMarlins 53%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CHC MIA

Game Markets

CHC @ MIA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIA to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

MIA F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

50%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

MIA -1.5

36%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.88 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: CHC 4.39, MIA 4.48
  • Javier Assad (CHC) vs Ryan Gusto (MIA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JA

Javier Assad

CHC SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

40%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.4 strikeouts
  • 8% to reach 5+ against MIA
RG

Ryan Gusto

MIA SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

28%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 23% to reach 5+ against CHC

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JAVIER ASSAD SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%14.0%OPS-against.533
vs Left-handedK%18.9%OPS-against.835
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.737K%21.3%

RYAN GUSTO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.2%OPS-against.753
vs Left-handedK%16.9%OPS-against.699
CHC vs RHP (team)OPS.754K%21.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIA BATTERS vs JAVIER ASSAD

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CHC BATTERS vs RYAN GUSTO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CHC 1·MIA 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
CHC 1·MIA 0
1 played · 18 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
59%CHC
CHC 57 · MIA 39 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-04CHC 6-1
2025-05-21CHC 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2025-05-20CHC 14-1 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CHC58¢ · 58%
MIA47¢ · 47%
Total 8
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
CHC -1.5— · —
MIA +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→4.5→5→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CHC OFFENSE

.349L15 team wOBA
+33 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

MIA OFFENSE

.295L15 team wOBA
-21 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT86° · 3mph out to LF
LOANDEPOT PARK
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Cavernous OF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
86°F
Wind3 mph out to LF
Humidity81%
Rain19%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO